Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
769 FXUS61 KRLX 101725 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 125 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Cold front today with isolated showers and storms. Mostly dry this week with warming trend. Hot temperatures expected end of the week. Chance for showers and isolated storms on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1150 AM Monday... Upper shortwave and weak surface front will cross the area this afternoon with isolated showers and possibly storms developing as it does so. Wave will move to the south and east of the area tonight, with at least some partial clearing, although higher terrain may hold onto some lower clouds overnight. Areas that do clear will see the formation of valley fog overnight, with high pressure building in and light winds. Tuesday looks to be dry, with high pressure in control. Can`t completely rule out a brief passing shower from combination of heating and weak ripples aloft, but overall, atmosphere looks to be dry and stable, thus expecting a dry, sunny day. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 210 AM Monday... Surface high pressure will be the centerpiece of the short term period, advertising mostly dry weather and warming temperatures. Pleasant temperatures are anticipated on Tuesday, but becomes warmer and a touch more humid heading into midweek as the high establishes itself overhead. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1215 PM Monday... The long-term period looks rather sultry and muggy as the work week closes up and the weekend opens store. High pressure will remain nearby Friday morning. Temperatures on Friday will be hot with upper 80s and low 90s expected across the lowlands. The mountains will see mid 70s to the upper 80s. A weak cold front will move through during the late afternoon and evening allowing for chances of some showers or an isolated thunderstorm, but this will mostly be confined to the northern lowlands and mountains as a surface low looks to form along the front. High pressure will swiftly move in behind the front Saturday paired with warm moist flow from the Gulf to reinforce hot and humid conditions. Temperatures on Sunday are currently projected by blended guidance to be in the mid to upper 90s for the lowlands. Other model guidance also predicts similar outcomes. A stationary front will approach from the south Sunday and then move overhead on Monday. That said, kept chance PoPs across the southern portions of the forecast area. && .AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 120 PM Monday... Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible mainly 20Z through 01Z, with brief MVFR conditions in vicinity of storms. Otherwise, VFR through around 06-09Z, when valley fog is expected to develop, with MVFR/IFR conditions in fog, although some deeper mountain valleys such as at KEKN may be LIFR/VLIFR for a period Tuesday morning. In addition, areas of MVFR/IFR stratus may develop across the higher terrain and linger through 12-14Z. After fog dissipates after 12Z, VFR conditions with light surface winds for the remainder of the period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Coverage of fog tonight may vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... Valley fog possible Wednesday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SL/LTC NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...MEK LONG TERM...LTC AVIATION...SL