Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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041 FXUS61 KRLX 121642 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 1242 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure keeps warm and dry conditions through Thursday. Chance for showers and isolated storms on Friday. Becoming hot and muggy to end the week and start next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1241 PM Wednesday... Broad surface high pressure, and diffluent flow at H500 will continue to provide dry weather conditions through Thursday. Near calm flow at the surface and clear skies will allow for dense fog to develop mainly along the river valleys overnight tonight. Any fog will quickly dissipate by 8 AM Thursday morning. It will be slightly warmer tonight with temperatures in the mid to upper 50s lowlands, ranging into the upper 40s higher elevations. Unseasonably hot temperatures are anticipated for Thursday, with highs around 90 degrees across the lowlands, ranging into the mid 70s higher elevations. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1218 PM Wednesday... Chances for showers and thunderstorms will return Friday with approaching mid-level vorticity and a surface cold front. As the cold front approaches, dew points ahead of it will reach 60-70 degrees. This, along with afternoon peak heating, will provide fuel for afternoon convection. SPC currently has northern portions of WV and southeast OH outlooked in a marginal risk of severe weather for Friday afternoon and evening, mainly for the threat of isolated damaging wind and hail. Confidence remains low at this time, as models are having difficulty grasping the magnitude of instability. Some models only predict around 500 J/kg of MLCAPE develops by Friday afternoon, while other models are more aggressive, showing 500-1,000 J/kg of MLCAPE developing. 0-6 km shear will be anywhere from 30-40 kts ahead of the cold front, which should be ample enough to support organized convection. We will have to wait and see how things pan out, as there could end up being too much low level moisture and clouds present, which could keep thunderstorms below severe limits. Friday`s cold front will help remove some of the humidity for the weekend, but it won`t be very effective at cooling us down. Highs are expected to be from the middle to upper 80s Friday afternoon, and Saturday`s highs will be from the lower to middle 80s behind the front. Dry conditions are expected Saturday as a ridge strengthens over the Southeast U.S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1219 PM Wednesday... An extended hot, summerlike pattern will develop Sunday through most of next week with high pressure strengthening over the eastern 1/3 of the country. Models show 500-mb heights rising to 592dm by Sunday and potentially reaching 596-598dm by the end of next week. The ECMWF favors a largely dry solution most of next week, while other models like the GFS and Canadian show more of a ring-of- fire scenario mid- to-late week with vorticity flowing around the outskirts of the ridge. We believe the drier solution should largely win out, but we decided to include slight chance PoPs for mid-to-late week to account for the possibility of mid-level disturbances triggering thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1239 PM Wednesday... High pressure overhead will provide dry weather and near calm flow through the end of period. River valley fog will develop once again overnight tonight, to produce a period of IFR/LIFR conditions roughly from 09Z to 13Z Thursday morning. Dense fog will likely affect EKN, PKB and CRW during this period, but could extend to other river valleys and stay shallow at HTS and CKB. VFR conditions will prevail on Thursday. Light northerly winds will become calm tonight. Light winds at the surface and aloft become light southwest on Thursday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent/duration of fog tonight into Thursday morning could vary from the forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 EDT 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... No widespread IFR conditions are forecast. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMC NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...ARJ