921
FXUS61 KRLX 100612
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
212 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front today with scattered showers. Mainly dry through the
work week with building heat. Chance for showers and isolated
storms on Friday with a weak cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 130 AM Monday...

Mainly clear skies this morning give way to increasing cloudiness
ahead of an upper level shortwave and associated cold front/surface
trough slated to move through the region late this afternoon into
this evening. Given modest, but relatively deep conditional
instability, scattered showers and perhaps isolated thunderstorms
will be possible ahead of this feature late this afternoon into the
evening hours. Shear will be rather meager, around 20KTS 0-6km, so
not expecting anything well organized with this activity.

Light flow, clearing skies, and dew point values in the low 50s
overnight should yield at least some patchy valley fog across the
region heading into daybreak Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 210 AM Monday...

Surface high pressure will be the centerpiece of the short term
period, advertising mostly dry weather and warming
temperatures. Pleasant temperatures are anticipated on Tuesday,
but becomes warmer and a touch more humid heading into midweek
as the high establishes itself overhead.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 210 AM Monday...

Pressure height rises will continue to yield a warming trend
heading into the end of the work week. Above normal temperatures
will prevail, especially by Friday, with afternoon highs
progged to reach the lower 90s. A rise in humidity levels will
impose muggier conditions as an uptick in moisture streams up
from the Gulf of Mexico.

A weak disturbance tracks through the Ohio Valley late Thursday
night into Friday, with a moisture starved cold front aiming
for the Central Appalachians by the second half of the day
Friday. Despite unfavorable upper level support with this
passing system, hot and muggy conditions preceding the frontal
passage may help stir up some isolated thunderstorms during peak
heating hours.

Dry weather triumphs once more in the wake of the front for the
weekend beneath strong ridging aloft. Temperatures will
continue to be unseasonably warm, with highs stretching into the
80s and 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 AM Monday...

Some patchy fog will be possible this morning in the better
protected valleys, although impacts at the terminals should be
minimal. Will code primarily BCFG for the more fog prone spots for a
few hours this morning.

VFR conditions are expected for the balance of the TAF period as a
weak cold front transits the region today. This may yield some
spotty showers, or perhaps even an isolated rumble of thunder late
this afternoon into this evening. With low coverage expected, will
address with VCSH for now.

Light winds this morning increase to 5-10KTs with some gusts into
the teens from the southwest ahead of the cold front, turning west-
northwesterly after frontal passage.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Valley fog could form in some locations
overnight.



EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              MON 06/10/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
Valley fog possible Tuesday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/MEK
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...JP