000
FXUS61 KRLX 100536
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
136 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front today with scattered showers. Mainly dry through the
work week with building heat.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 130 AM Monday...

Mainly clear skies this morning give way to increasing cloudiness
ahead of an upper level shortwave and associated cold front/surface
trough slated to move through the region late this afternoon into
this evening. Given modest, but relatively deep conditional
instability, scattered showers and perhaps isolated thunderstorms
will be possible ahead of this feature late this afternoon into the
evening hours. Shear will be rather meager, around 20KTS 0-6km, so
not expecting anything well organized with this activity.

Light flow, clearing skies, and dew point values in the low 50s
overnight should yield at least some patchy valley fog across the
region heading into daybreak Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 205 PM Sunday...

A couple of shortwaves will affect the area Monday night and
Tuesday. These may provide for a brief shower, but overall, most of
the area should remain dry. Cooler weather will be in place for
Tuesday, with high temperatures only topping out in the lower to mid
70s for much of the region outside of the mountains. The cooler
weather is short lived however, as temperatures gradually start to
warm by Wednesday, as high pressure surface and aloft build into the
area. Temperatures on Wednesday should be closer to, or even
slightly above seasonal norms, with mainly dry conditions expected
area wide.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1202 PM Sunday...

Increasingly warm and humid conditions will take hold for mid to
late week as southerly flow increases across the area. Thursday and
Friday both will see temperatures in the 90s across much of the
lowlands, with an increase in chances for showers and storms on
Friday with the approach of a front. Although a bit far out, cannot
completely rule out an isolated strong to severe storm during this
period, with a wind damage threat. Overall drier, but still above
normal temperatures, look to take hold once again for next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 AM Monday...

Some patchy fog will be possible this morning in the better
protected valleys, although impacts at the terminals should be
minimal. Will code primarily BCFG for the more fog prone spots for a
few hours this morning.

VFR conditions are expected for the balance of the TAF period as a
weak cold front transits the region today. This may yield some
spotty showers, or perhaps even an isolated rumble of thunder late
this afternoon into this evening. With low coverage expected, will
address with VCSH for now.

Light winds this morning increase to 5-10KTs with some gusts into
the teens from the southwest ahead of the cold front, turning west-
northwesterly after frontal passage.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Valley fog could form in some locations
overnight.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              MON 06/10/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
Valley fog possible Tuesday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/MEK
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JP