488
FXUS61 KRLX 092324
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
724 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak cold front passes through today, providing a chance of
showers and isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Mainly dry
through the work week with building heat.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 720 PM Sunday...

In southern WV and southwest VA, a few showers lingering behind
a front are expected to depart this evening then drier
conditions should take hold overnight. No significant changes
have been made to the near term forecast at this time.

As of 120 PM Sunday...

A cold front, rather weak in strength, is currently traversing
our forecast area this afternoon. Scattered low clouds and
showers will continue to spawn ahead of the front this afternoon
as it passes through. There is the slight chance for an
isolated thunderstorm or two across portions of the mountains
with the frontal passage during peak heating this afternoon.

Behind the front, flow shifts more northwesterly and clouds
will gradually lift and scatter, however a few low-level cloud
streets will continue to filter through at times with the breezy
northwesterly flow. Outside of the higher elevations, winds are
forecasted to slack off tonight becoming light or calm for many
locations.

Temperatures this afternoon will be a few degrees below normal
with upper 70s to around 80 degrees expected for the lowlands,
while the mountains will stay in the 60s to the middle 70s. Lows
tonight will drop back in the 50s with a few locations in the
higher terrain seeing temperatures in the upper 40s.

Drier weather and some clearing moves in Monday morning behind
a reinforcing, dry cold front. Light and calm winds will pick
back up by Monday afternoon becoming breezy at times.
Temperatures will be below normal, but still comfortable. The
lowlands will range anywhere from the upper 60s to the mid 70s,
while the mountains will observe anywhere from the upper 50s to
the lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 205 PM Sunday...

A couple of shortwaves will affect the area Monday night and
Tuesday. These may provide for a brief shower, but overall, most of
the area should remain dry. Cooler weather will be in place for
Tuesday, with high temperatures only topping out in the lower to mid
70s for much of the region outside of the mountains. The cooler
weather is short lived however, as temperatures gradually start to
warm by Wednesday, as high pressure surface and aloft build into the
area. Temperatures on Wednesday should be closer to, or even
slightly above seasonal norms, with mainly dry conditions expected
area wide.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1202 PM Sunday...

Increasingly warm and humid conditions will take hold for mid to
late week as southerly flow increases across the area. Thursday and
Friday both will see temperatures in the 90s across much of the
lowlands, with an increase in chances for showers and storms on
Friday with the approach of a front. Although a bit far out, cannot
completely rule out an isolated strong to severe storm during this
period, with a wind damage threat. Overall drier, but still above
normal temperatures, look to take hold once again for next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 720 PM Sunday...

VFR conditions are present across the area this evening, with
SCT to BKN clouds moving overhead. Winds will gradually lessen
and become calm to light at the surface overnight. Some patchy
fog could attempt to form in the valleys after winds relax,
though coverage may be limited by clouds.

Mainly VFR conditions are expected for Monday, though brief
reductions to MVFR are not entirely out of the question as a
cold front moves through during the day. Winds will pick up
during the day, with sustained speeds of around 6-12kts and
15-20kt gusts possible in the afternoon. West to southwest winds
are expected ahead of the front, then winds turn northwesterly
in its wake.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Valley fog could form in some locations
overnight. Brief MVFR could be possible during the passage of a
front on Monday.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EDT 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SL/LTC
NEAR TERM...JLB/LTC
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JLB