106
FXUS61 KRLX 091513
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1113 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak cold front passes overhead today, providing a chance of
showers and afternoon thunderstorms. Mainly dry through the
work week with building heat.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1100 AM Sunday...

Updated temperatures, PoPs and cloud cover with latest guidance,
but no major changes occurred. Cold front is currently moving
across the forecast area with a surface low anchored to along
the leading edge.

Scattered low clouds and some showers will exist ahead of the
front into the afternoon before it moves out. Some convection
may exist this afternoon across the mountains with some showers
as the front moves through during peak heating, but only slight
chances remain for this. Behind the front, clouds are gradually
scattering and lifting as flow turns breezy and more northwesterly.

As of 625 AM Sunday...

Overcast skies masking the area overnight maintained slightly
warmer temperatures than anticipated, so adjusted up to reflect
current observations. Light shower activity has arrived with the
cold front, remaining in line with previous thinking of POPs for
the morning timeframe, thus no changes were necessary in this
department. Did however opt to retain broken to scattered clouds
longer in the wake of the frontal passage this afternoon before
sufficient clearing looks to take place this evening into the
overnight hours as the front slips further southward.

As of 120 AM Sunday...

A moisture starved cold front is set to pass over the area from
north to south today. Radar trends at the time of writing depict
rain draped along the front from northern Ohio into upstate New
York, which will gradually shift southward through the course of
the early morning hours. Showers should then arrive to the
northern fringes of our forecast area closer to daybreak,
continuing a southward progression later this morning into the
afternoon.

Thunderstorm development along the front becomes more
likely during the heat of the afternoon, which may come at a
point where the front will have almost already completed its
full passage through our southern forecast zones. Maintained a
mention of thunder for the coalfield areas this afternoon, then
tapering back down to only lingering showers by the evening.

Upper level jet support drifts out the area tonight in tandem
with the surface cold front tracking further south into the
Carolinas and Mississippi Valley. Dry weather then settles back
over the Central Appalachians for the end of the period and into
the start of the new week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 AM Sunday...

Northwesterly flow continues aloft through Tuesday yielding
temperatures a little cooler than normal for this time of the year
for Monday and Tuesday. Couldn`t completely rule out a stray shower
on Monday as a shortwave transits the base of the long wave trough
overhead, but most locations should remain dry. Heights begin to
rise Tuesday as low amplitude ridging begins to move into the Lower
Ohio Valley with surface temperatures edging up around a degree or
two above Monday`s values. With a still rather dry airmass and no
forcing overhead, Tuesday should be a dry day.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 220 AM Sunday...

Heights continue to build through the end of the work week despite a
rather flat pattern aloft. A modest increase in low level
southwesterly flow will begin to usher some moisture back into the
region with dew points increasing from the lower to mid 50s to lower
60s mid-week and beyond. Temperatures will also be on the rise with
highs approaching 90 across the lowlands by Friday.

Modest low level moisture and weak mid-level lapse rates won`t allow
for much conditional instability, so any afternoon shower coverage
appears isolated at best through at least Thursday. Model consensus
does suggest cold frontal passage Friday or Saturday with at least
some better chances for impactful weather returning to the
region.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 625 AM Sunday...

Encroachment of a cold front this morning has brought light
showers into northern West Virginia for the start of the period.
The front is progged to slip southward throughout the day, with
MVFR ceilings aligned along the boundary. This will yield a
brief period of sub-VFR into the afternoon, but scattering out
and lifting in the wake of FROPA. A few thunderstorms may form
along the front around 18Z, but will only remain close to BKW at
that time to promote the potential for VCTS. The front propels
further south tonight, with clearing skies returning overnight.
A weak disturbance passing through the northeastern mountains
may advertise MVFR ceilings at EKN Monday morning.

Surface winds will gradually veer out of the northwest today and
become breezy in the midst of the frontal passage. Gusts of
15-20kts were included at all sites, diminishing late this
evening.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of showers and
thunderstorms with the cold front today could vary.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/MEK
NEAR TERM...MEK/LTC
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MEK