Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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106 FXUS61 KRLX 091513 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 1113 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Weak cold front passes overhead today, providing a chance of showers and afternoon thunderstorms. Mainly dry through the work week with building heat. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1100 AM Sunday... Updated temperatures, PoPs and cloud cover with latest guidance, but no major changes occurred. Cold front is currently moving across the forecast area with a surface low anchored to along the leading edge. Scattered low clouds and some showers will exist ahead of the front into the afternoon before it moves out. Some convection may exist this afternoon across the mountains with some showers as the front moves through during peak heating, but only slight chances remain for this. Behind the front, clouds are gradually scattering and lifting as flow turns breezy and more northwesterly. As of 625 AM Sunday... Overcast skies masking the area overnight maintained slightly warmer temperatures than anticipated, so adjusted up to reflect current observations. Light shower activity has arrived with the cold front, remaining in line with previous thinking of POPs for the morning timeframe, thus no changes were necessary in this department. Did however opt to retain broken to scattered clouds longer in the wake of the frontal passage this afternoon before sufficient clearing looks to take place this evening into the overnight hours as the front slips further southward. As of 120 AM Sunday... A moisture starved cold front is set to pass over the area from north to south today. Radar trends at the time of writing depict rain draped along the front from northern Ohio into upstate New York, which will gradually shift southward through the course of the early morning hours. Showers should then arrive to the northern fringes of our forecast area closer to daybreak, continuing a southward progression later this morning into the afternoon. Thunderstorm development along the front becomes more likely during the heat of the afternoon, which may come at a point where the front will have almost already completed its full passage through our southern forecast zones. Maintained a mention of thunder for the coalfield areas this afternoon, then tapering back down to only lingering showers by the evening. Upper level jet support drifts out the area tonight in tandem with the surface cold front tracking further south into the Carolinas and Mississippi Valley. Dry weather then settles back over the Central Appalachians for the end of the period and into the start of the new week. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 220 AM Sunday... Northwesterly flow continues aloft through Tuesday yielding temperatures a little cooler than normal for this time of the year for Monday and Tuesday. Couldn`t completely rule out a stray shower on Monday as a shortwave transits the base of the long wave trough overhead, but most locations should remain dry. Heights begin to rise Tuesday as low amplitude ridging begins to move into the Lower Ohio Valley with surface temperatures edging up around a degree or two above Monday`s values. With a still rather dry airmass and no forcing overhead, Tuesday should be a dry day. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 220 AM Sunday... Heights continue to build through the end of the work week despite a rather flat pattern aloft. A modest increase in low level southwesterly flow will begin to usher some moisture back into the region with dew points increasing from the lower to mid 50s to lower 60s mid-week and beyond. Temperatures will also be on the rise with highs approaching 90 across the lowlands by Friday. Modest low level moisture and weak mid-level lapse rates won`t allow for much conditional instability, so any afternoon shower coverage appears isolated at best through at least Thursday. Model consensus does suggest cold frontal passage Friday or Saturday with at least some better chances for impactful weather returning to the region. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 625 AM Sunday... Encroachment of a cold front this morning has brought light showers into northern West Virginia for the start of the period. The front is progged to slip southward throughout the day, with MVFR ceilings aligned along the boundary. This will yield a brief period of sub-VFR into the afternoon, but scattering out and lifting in the wake of FROPA. A few thunderstorms may form along the front around 18Z, but will only remain close to BKW at that time to promote the potential for VCTS. The front propels further south tonight, with clearing skies returning overnight. A weak disturbance passing through the northeastern mountains may advertise MVFR ceilings at EKN Monday morning. Surface winds will gradually veer out of the northwest today and become breezy in the midst of the frontal passage. Gusts of 15-20kts were included at all sites, diminishing late this evening. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of showers and thunderstorms with the cold front today could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z MONDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JP/MEK NEAR TERM...MEK/LTC SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...MEK