Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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457 FXUS61 KRLX 121623 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 1223 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure keeps warm and dry conditions through Thursday. Chance for showers and isolated storms on Friday. Becoming hot and muggy to end the week and start next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1216 PM Wednesday... Previous forecast remains on track. No changes needed at this time. As of 605 AM Wednesday... Fog has trickled out into the valleys this morning, captured reasonably well by the existing forecast. Fog lifts and dissipates over the next couple hours. No changes needed at this time. As of 120 AM Wednesday... A quiet pattern continues as troughing over the east coast is increasingly replaced by high zonal flow aloft with high pressure at the surface. The main forecast issue for this morning and again Thursday morning will be coverage of fog with near zero flow through 10kft, seasonably moist low levels, and dry air in the mid-levels overhead. With lack of substantial recent rainfall will confined any significantly reduced visibilities to the valleys with a patchy fog mention elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1218 PM Wednesday... Chances for showers and thunderstorms will return Friday with approaching mid-level vorticity and a surface cold front. As the cold front approaches, dew points ahead of it will reach 60-70 degrees. This, along with afternoon peak heating, will provide fuel for afternoon convection. SPC currently has northern portions of WV and southeast OH outlooked in a marginal risk of severe weather for Friday afternoon and evening, mainly for the threat of isolated damaging wind and hail. Confidence remains low at this time, as models are having difficulty grasping the magnitude of instability. Some models only predict around 500 J/kg of MLCAPE develops by Friday afternoon, while other models are more aggressive, showing 500-1,000 J/kg of MLCAPE developing. 0-6 km shear will be anywhere from 30-40 kts ahead of the cold front, which should be ample enough to support organized convection. We will have to wait and see how things pan out, as there could end up being too much low level moisture and clouds present, which could keep thunderstorms below severe limits. Friday`s cold front will help remove some of the humidity for the weekend, but it won`t be very effective at cooling us down. Highs are expected to be from the middle to upper 80s Friday afternoon, and Saturday`s highs will be from the lower to middle 80s behind the front. Dry conditions are expected Saturday as a ridge strengthens over the Southeast U.S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1219 PM Wednesday... An extended hot, summerlike pattern will develop Sunday through most of next week with high pressure strengthening over the eastern 1/3 of the country. Models show 500-mb heights rising to 592dm by Sunday and potentially reaching 596-598dm by the end of next week. The ECMWF favors a largely dry solution most of next week, while other models like the GFS and Canadian show more of a ring-of- fire scenario mid- to-late week with vorticity flowing around the outskirts of the ridge. We believe the drier solution should largely win out, but we decided to include slight chance PoPs for mid-to-late week to account for the possibility of mid-level disturbances triggering thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 605 AM Wednesday... Valley fog mixes out through 13Z with just SCT high clouds floating across the region. Patchy fog valley fog is possible again tonight with mostly clear skies and light winds. Winds remain light, weakly favoring a northerly direction. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent/duration of fog tonight morning could vary from the forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 EDT 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... No widespread IFR conditions are forecast. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JP/MEK NEAR TERM...ARJ/JP SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...JP