562
FXUS61 KRLX 081802
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
202 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure keeps dry and comfortable weather around today.
Precipitation chances return early Sunday with a cold front.
Mainly dry through the work week with building heat.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 PM Saturday...

Seeing mid to high level clouds move through the forecast area
this afternoon ahead of a looming disturbance to our west. High
pressure to the south will keep the area dry today with warm and
comfortable temperatures for most locations. High temperatures
will be in the upper 70s and low 80s across the lowlands; 60s
and 70s in the mountains. Winds could be breezy at times this
afternoon, particularly across the mountains.

A cold front will slowly move through the region Sunday after
arriving in the early morning hours. Models continue to suggest
a drier passage with this front, and blended guidance only keeps
chances for showers, and maybe a thunderstorm or two, across
the mountains and foothills starting early Sunday morning into
the afternoon. Temperatures on Sunday look to be in the same
ball park as today, maybe 1-3 degrees cooler depending on cloud
cover.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Saturday...

A weak cold front arriving Sunday morning will yield mainly light
rain across the region with perhaps a few rumbles of thunder across
our southern counties. Precipitation largely clears the region to
the southeast by early Sunday evening. Expected rainfall amounts are
generally between a tenth and a quarter of an inch with this
activity.

In the wake of this activity, northwesterly flow continues aloft
yielding temperatures around 5 degrees below normal for this time of
the year for Monday and Tuesday. Couldn`t completely rule out a
stray shower on Monday as a shortwave transits the base of the long
wave trough overhead, but most locations should remain dry.
Heights begin to rise Tuesday as low amplitude ridging begins to
move into the Lower Ohio Valley with surface temperatures
edging up around a degree or two above Monday`s values. With a
still rather dry airmass and no forcing overhead, expecting a
dry day for all Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1150 AM Saturday...

Increasingly warm and humid conditions will take hold for mid to
late week as upper ridge takes hold across the area. Ridge will
break down towards the end of the period, with unsettled weather
returning once again as a cold front approaches the area.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 145 PM Saturday...

VFR conditions today with passing BKN-OVC cloud decks ahead of a
cold front scheduled to arrive Sunday morning. CIGs will
gradually lower through the afternoon/evening with a brief
period of MVFR in the morning hours with FROPA. There remains
chances for showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm or two with
this front in the morning and into the afternoon; chances
remain higher across the mountains. Conditions will improve by
Sunday late afternoon/evening.

Winds will be SW to W this afternoon, breezy at times, especially
across the higher elevations. Flow shifts more W to NW tomorrow
behind the cold front and will be breezy at times once again.



FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
EDT 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR conditions possible under showers or thunderstorms Sunday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SL/LTC
NEAR TERM...LTC
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...LTC