Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
044 FXUS61 KRLX 080459 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 1259 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure advertises dry and pleasant weather today. Precipitation chances return early Sunday with a cold front, with pop-up activity continuing into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 100 AM Saturday... Another dry day is on tap for the start of the weekend with the aid of nearby high pressure. Clear skies triumph for the beginning of the period, but we should start to see a canopy of mid to high level clouds invade from the west early this afternoon into this evening. This will mark the slow approach of a disturbance progged for arrival on Sunday. Hi-res guidance suggests very light shower activity could accompany lowering ceilings today, but dry air still present near the surface will mitigate much from reaching the ground until very late tonight into early Sunday morning. Cool and comfortable weather is anticipated once again for this afternoon, with highs extending into the 70s/low 80s and dew points still down in the 50s. A stronger moisture pull begins late tonight ahead of the next disturbance, which will yield rising dew points by the conclusion of the forecast period. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 1146 AM Friday... A quick moving shortwave will affect the area late Saturday night, early Sunday, with some light shower activity possible, mainly across far southern zones. Showers and storm chances increase during the afternoon Sunday, with the arrival/passage of a weak cold front, combined with diurnal heating. Thunderstorms should generally be isolated in nature, and severe is not anticipated. Much in the way of water issues are not anticipated either due to isolated nature and anticipated movement of any storms. A shortwave moving across the northeast may provide some light/brief shower/storm activity mainly across the north and east on Monday, but overall drier and cooler weather will take hold with surface high pressure building in, and northwesterly flow aloft taking hold. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 145 PM Friday... Increasingly warm and humid conditions will take hold for mid week as upper ridge takes hold across the area. Ridge will break down towards the end of the period, with unsettled weather returning once again. Greatest chances for activity look to lie across eastern zones during this period. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 100 AM Saturday... VFR conditions can be expected through the TAF period under the establishment of high pressure. High clouds passing through early this morning will depart eastward, with clear skies then persisting into early this afternoon. A disturbance arriving for the end of the weekend will begin to cast lowered ceilings this evening into the overnight hours, but remaining within VFR thresholds. Showers encroach shortly after the end of the valid TAF period. Breezy low level flow will mitigate fog development early this morning. Southwest winds prevail through today, becoming slightly breezy along the higher terrain this afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 06/08/24 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... IFR conditions possible under showers or thunderstorms Sunday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SL/MEK NEAR TERM...MEK SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...MEK