443
FXUS61 KRLX 071743
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
143 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler and drier tonight and Saturday under high pressure.
Precipitation chances return early Sunday with a cold front with
pop-up activity continuing into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 142 PM Friday...

Broad surface high pressure builds across the MS/TS valley,
northeast into the OH valley and WV through Saturday. Meanwhile, at
the upper levels, a shortwave crosses from west to east by Saturday
evening. This pattern will bring dry weather conditions with
scattered mid to upper level clouds mainly across the northern
sections tonight and Saturday.

Fresh air in place with dewpoints in the 50s will provide a nice
sunset under mostly clear skies and pleasant temperatures. Tonight`s
temperatures will be few degrees below normal, generally in the mid
to low 50s across the lowlands, ranging into the mid 40s northeast
mountains. Below normal highs are anticipated for Saturday with
temperatures reaching the upper 70s across the lowlands, ranging
into the mid 60s higher elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1146 AM Friday...

A quick moving shortwave will affect the area late Saturday night,
early Sunday, with some light shower activity possible, mainly
across far southern zones. Showers and storm chances increase during
the afternoon Sunday, with the arrival/passage of a weak cold front,
combined with diurnal heating. Thunderstorms should generally be
isolated in nature, and severe is not anticipated. Much in the way
of water issues are not anticipated either due to isolated nature
and anticipated movement of any storms. A shortwave moving across
the northeast may provide some light/brief shower/storm activity
mainly across the north and east on Monday, but overall drier and
cooler weather will take hold with surface high pressure building
in, and northwesterly flow aloft taking hold.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1210 PM Thursday...

The long term period will be characterized by mean troughing over
the east coast and relatively flat ridging over the western half of
the country. Seeing some differences in model solutions regarding
the western flank of elongated low pressure along the Canadian
border and interaction with the aforementioned weak ridging.
The last couple runs of the GFS have cut this feature off and
tucked it under the ridge, eventually being picked up by a
shared energy area early next week. GEFS mean, as well as the
operational EC and Canadian seem to depict a more plausible
scenario with this energy ridging the northern stream. Net
result would be slightly higher synoptically forced
precipitation chances Monday night into Tuesday with the
operational GFS. Otherwise, expect mainly diurnally driven
isolated showers and thunderstorms for much of next week.

Temperatures will generally be on a rising trend through the week
from around 5 degrees below normal to 5 to 10 degrees above normal
by Friday. If the outlier GFS solution were to be realized the
warming trend would be significantly stunted for the middle of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 136 PM Friday...

High pressure centered over the MS/TN Valley will provide
widespread VFR conditions through Saturday.

Southwest winds gusting up to 20-25 knots will be common at most
sites this afternoon, diminishing around sunset. Winds will
become calm overnight tonight. Winds at H850 increasing to 30
knots tonight will provide enough ventilation to prevent fog
development tonight.

Widespread VFR conditions expected Saturday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR conditions possible at BKW and CRW under showers or storms
Sunday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...ARJ