Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
728 FXUS61 KRLX 071746 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 146 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Cooler and drier tonight and Saturday under high pressure. Precipitation chances return early Sunday with a cold front with pop-up activity continuing into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 142 PM Friday... Broad surface high pressure builds across the MS/TS valley, northeast into the OH valley and WV through Saturday. Meanwhile, at the upper levels, a shortwave crosses from west to east by Saturday evening. This pattern will bring dry weather conditions with scattered mid to upper level clouds mainly across the northern sections tonight and Saturday. Fresh air in place with dewpoints in the 50s will provide a nice sunset under mostly clear skies and pleasant temperatures. Tonight`s temperatures will be few degrees below normal, generally in the mid to low 50s across the lowlands, ranging into the mid 40s northeast mountains. Below normal highs are anticipated for Saturday with temperatures reaching the upper 70s across the lowlands, ranging into the mid 60s higher elevations. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 1146 AM Friday... A quick moving shortwave will affect the area late Saturday night, early Sunday, with some light shower activity possible, mainly across far southern zones. Showers and storm chances increase during the afternoon Sunday, with the arrival/passage of a weak cold front, combined with diurnal heating. Thunderstorms should generally be isolated in nature, and severe is not anticipated. Much in the way of water issues are not anticipated either due to isolated nature and anticipated movement of any storms. A shortwave moving across the northeast may provide some light/brief shower/storm activity mainly across the north and east on Monday, but overall drier and cooler weather will take hold with surface high pressure building in, and northwesterly flow aloft taking hold. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 145 PM Friday... Increasingly warm and humid conditions will take hold for mid week as upper ridge takes hold across the area. Ridge will break down towards the end of the period, with unsettled weather returning once again. Greatest chances for activity look to lie across eastern zones during this period. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 136 PM Friday... High pressure centered over the MS/TN Valley will provide widespread VFR conditions through Saturday. Southwest winds gusting up to 20-25 knots will be common at most sites this afternoon, diminishing around sunset. Winds will become calm overnight tonight. Winds at H850 increasing to 30 knots tonight will provide enough ventilation to prevent fog development tonight. Widespread VFR conditions expected Saturday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... IFR conditions possible at BKW and CRW under showers or storms Sunday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...ARJ