197
FXUS61 KRLX 122238
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
638 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure keeps warm and dry conditions through Thursday.
Chance for showers and isolated storms on Friday. Becoming hot
and muggy to end the week and start next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1241 PM Wednesday...

Broad surface high pressure, and diffluent flow at H500 will
continue to provide dry weather conditions through Thursday.
Near calm flow at the surface and clear skies will allow for
dense fog to develop mainly along the river valleys overnight
tonight. Any fog will quickly dissipate by 8 AM Thursday
morning.

It will be slightly warmer tonight with temperatures in the mid to
upper 50s lowlands, ranging into the upper 40s higher elevations.
Unseasonably hot temperatures are anticipated for Thursday, with
highs around 90 degrees across the lowlands, ranging into the mid
70s higher elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1218 PM Wednesday...

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will return Friday with
approaching mid-level vorticity and a surface cold front. As
the cold front approaches, dew points ahead of it will reach
60-70 degrees. This, along with afternoon peak heating, will
provide fuel for afternoon convection. SPC currently has
northern portions of WV and southeast OH outlooked in a marginal
risk of severe weather for Friday afternoon and evening, mainly
for the threat of isolated damaging wind and hail. Confidence
remains low at this time, as models are having difficulty
grasping the magnitude of instability. Some models only predict
around 500 J/kg of MLCAPE develops by Friday afternoon, while
other models are more aggressive, showing 500-1,000 J/kg of
MLCAPE developing. 0-6 km shear will be anywhere from 30-40 kts
ahead of the cold front, which should be ample enough to support
organized convection. We will have to wait and see how things
pan out, as there could end up being too much low level moisture
and clouds present, which could keep thunderstorms below severe
limits.

Friday`s cold front will help remove some of the humidity for
the weekend, but it won`t be very effective at cooling us down.
Highs are expected to be from the middle to upper 80s Friday
afternoon, and Saturday`s highs will be from the lower to middle
80s behind the front. Dry conditions are expected Saturday as a
ridge strengthens over the Southeast U.S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1219 PM Wednesday...

An extended hot, summerlike pattern will develop Sunday through most
of next week with high pressure strengthening over the eastern 1/3
of the country. Models show 500-mb heights rising to 592dm by Sunday
and potentially reaching 596-598dm by the end of next week. The
ECMWF favors a largely dry solution most of next week, while
other models like the GFS and Canadian show more of a ring-of-
fire scenario mid- to-late week with vorticity flowing around
the outskirts of the ridge. We believe the drier solution should
largely win out, but we decided to include slight chance PoPs
for mid-to-late week to account for the possibility of mid-level
disturbances triggering thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 630 PM Wednesday...

VFR conditions through the TAF period, with the possible
exception of some river valley fog late tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: River valley fog may or may not form late
tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EDT 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are forecast.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMC
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...RPY