870
FXUS61 KRLX 112337
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
737 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure keeps warm and dry conditions through Thursday.
Chance for showers and isolated storms on Friday. Becoming hot
and muggy to end the week and start next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 735 PM Tuesday...

No significant changes to the forecast are needed at this time.

As of 104 PM Tuesday...

A high pressure center moves overhead tonight, providing a relaxed
pressure gradient and mostly clear skies. These ingredients are
ideal for radiational cooling to take place tonight. Local
soundings show very dry air aloft showing substance inversion
and a radiational cooling inversion at most sites. This will
allow for temperatures to drop few degrees below normal,
generally in the lower 50s lowlands, into the mid 40s higher
elevations.

NBM suggests dense fog along the western foothills, central and
southern coalfields of WV. Therefore, expecting areas of dense
fog developing mainly along the river valley during overnight
into early Wednesday morning. Any fog will quickly dissipate by
9 AM Wednesday. High pressure prevails Wednesday with dry
conditions and warm temperatures, generally in the lower 80s
lowlands, ranging into the mid 60s higher elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 140 PM Tuesday...

High pressure will continue to be in control across the area on
Thursday, with hot conditions. There could be a pop up shower or
storm during peak heating across the higher terrain, but overall,
expecting a mainly dry forecast. On Friday, a cold front will move
into the region, providing a chance for showers and storms once
again. An isolated strong to severe storm cannot be completely ruled
out during the period, with mainly a damaging wind potential. But
overall, coverage of convection doesn`t appear to be that widespread
at this point. The front and associated cloud cover and convection
will taper high temperatures slightly on Friday compared to
Thursday. Front should sag to the south of the area late Friday
night into early Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1205 PM Tuesday...

Dry conditions and near seasonal temperatures will take hold for
Saturday behind the front. Conditions will become increasingly hot
and humid by the end of the week into early next week, as upper
heights build, and a warm front moves through the region, with dew
points surging across the area, possibly into the upper 60s to lower
70s. This combined with temperatures forecast to be in the mid to
upper 90s across the lowlands, particularly on Monday, will result
in heat indices nearing 100. In addition, shower and thunderstorm
activity looks to increase across the area during the period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 735 PM Tuesday...

VFR conditions are currently present across the area and should
persist into the first part of the night. Once clouds erode
after sunset, mainly clear skies and calm to light winds are
expected for the rest of the night. This should support the
formation of river valley fog during the early morning hours.
IFR or worse flight conditions will be possible in fog.

Any restrictions will improve to VFR as fog dissipates after
sunrise, then VFR and light winds are expected for the
remainder of the TAF period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium for fog tonight. Otherwise, high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent/duration of fog overnight could
vary from the forecast.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EDT 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are forecast.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ/JLB
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JLB