460
FXUS61 KRNK 110016
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
816 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The weather pattern stays about the same into the weekend. Daily
afternoon and evening storm chances will remain along with muggy
conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 755 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Patchy fog and low clouds will develop overnight. Warm and
muggy conditions expected.

2) Widely scattered showers and storms will redevelop on Friday
with daytime heating. A few may become severe for brief periods
of time.

With widespread shower and thunderstorm activity exiting the
area this evening, the flood watch has been cancelled early.
Still a few showers on radar, and expect a few to pop up here
and there over the next few hours, though they will remain brief
in duration.

Expect rounds of low clouds and patchy fog to develop overnight
given moist soils, light winds and only scattered clouds.
Mountain river valleys will likely experience the most fog
development.

The airmass stays the same Friday. Despite the absence of
pronounced low and upper level triggers, scattered thunderstorms
should develop during the late morning into the afternoon
hours. Weak shear and slightly above normal precipitable water
values will exist for scattered water-loaded downbursts capable
of producing isolated wind damage, as well as localized
flooding due to slow storm movement.

Temperatures will be muggy tonight in the 60s west to near 70
east. Sunshine should be available longer tomorrow allowing
highs close to 90 east to lower 80s west.

Forecast confidence is moderate to high, except low to moderate
on severe threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1200 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Points:

1. Daily chances of primarily afternoon/evening showers/storms.
2. Localized heavy rain/flooding possible with the heavier
showers/storms.
3. Above average temperatures.

A look at the 10 Jul 00Z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500mb Geopotential
Heights shows for Friday night a broad ridge over much of SW
through SE CONUS. Over the northern half of CONUS, will be a
more progressive pattern with a jet near the US/Canadian border,
and a shortwave trough over the Upper Mississippi Valley and
one over the Northern High Plains. For Saturday/Saturday night,
the two shortwave trough across north-central CONUS are depicted
as merged into one, more amplified trough extending from the
Upper Mississippi River Valley to the Central Plains States.
Elsewhere, the persistent ridge continues across the southern
half of CONUS. For Sunday/Sunday night, the shortwave trough
shifts east to over an area from the western Great Lakes, south
into the mid-Mississippi River Valley.

At the surface, for Friday night, a weak area of low pressure
is expected to be across eastern parts mid-Atlantic and SE US. A
stronger region of low pressure is expected to be over MT/WY.
High pressure will be centered off the east coast of FL. For
Saturday/Saturday night, weak low pressure remains over portions
of VA/NC/SC with high pressure over the Gulf Coast states
extending to east of FL. A cold front will advance into the
Lower Ohio Valley. For Sunday/Sunday night, weak low pressure
remains situated over portions of the mid-Atlantic to SE US
while a cold front advances farther towards or over the Ohio
Valley. High pressure remains parked over portions of the Gulf
Coast states to off the east coast of FL.

A look at the 10 Jul 00Z NAEFS Ensemble Situational Awareness
data shows 850mb temperatures around +18C to +19C across the
region on Saturday and +19C to +20C on Sunday.

The above weather patterns offers the following forecast. The
area will remain within airmass conducive to daily chances of
primarily diurnal showers and storms and above normal
temperatures. Convective coverage may continue more into and
through Sunday night, as compared to Friday and Saturday nights
thanks to the advance of a cold front towards our region acting
as a focus for upstream development.

With plenty of available moisture, any areas which receive
multiple showers/storms in a short period of time, or experience
slow moving heavy rain producing showers/storms, could see
localized flooding. Those areas which experienced recent
flooding will be more susceptible to flooding as soil moisture
levels will be higher than surrounding regions.

Confidence in the above weather scenario is high.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1200 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Points:

1. Daily chances of showers/storms, especially on Mon and Thurs.
2. Localized heavy rain/flooding possible with the heavier
showers/storms.
3. Above normal temperatures.

A look a the 10 Jul 00Z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500mb Geopotential
Heights shows for Monday/Monday night the shortwave trough over
the Great Lakes merging with a longwave trough over central
Canada. The broad ridge over the southern half of CONUS shifts a
bit north. For Tuesday/Tuesday night, little change is expected
to the over synoptic pattern. The axis of the Canadian longwave
trough may shift east slightly. For Wednesday/Wednesday night,
the longwave trough shifts a little farther east with its trough
axis dipping a little farther south into the western Great
Lakes region. For Thursday, a bit more progression east and
south of the longwave trough is forecast. Ridging remains over
the southern half of CONUS.

At the surface, for Monday/Monday night, a cold front
progresses eastward, merging with what will have been a nearly
stationary area weak low pressure system over eastern portions
of VA/NC/SC. High pressure will remain parked over portions of
the Gulf Coast states to off the east coast of FL. For
Tuesday/Tuesday night, high pressure will settle over the area
in the wake of one frontal passage. However, another cold front
will be upstream over the mid- West. For Wednesday/Wednesday
night high pressure will remain over the region with a front
approaching from the northwest. On Thursday, this front draws
closer, and the center of the high shifts to our southeast.

A look at the 10 Jul 00Z NAEFS Ensemble Situational Awareness
data shows 850mb temperatures of +19C to +20C across the area
for Monday through Wednesday. For Thursday, values decrease just
slightly to +17C to +18C.

The above weather patterns offers the following forecast.
Despite having periods of time with high pressure over the area,
our region will continue within a pattern of daily chances of
showers/storm. These chances will be greatest during the times
when fronts are expected to cross our region (Mon and Thurs),
but little change in the airmass behind each front will keep the
region within a moisture rich environment. On those days
without a front over the area, enough daytime heating
instability is expected to occur to help generate
showers/storms.

With plenty of available moisture, any areas which receive
multiple showers/storms in a short period of time, or experience
slow moving heavy rain producing showers/storms, could see
localized flooding. Those areas which experience flooding on one
day, will be more susceptible to flooding the next day,
assuming heavy rain over the area, as soil moisture levels will
be higher than surrounding regions.

Confidence in the above weather scenario is moderate to high.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 750 PM EDT Thursday...

The Danville, VA ASOS has been restored to full service.

Radar is most clear this evening aside from a few lingering
showers. May have showers pop up from time to time, but expect
that they will be short-lived.

Overnight, expect patchy MVFR/IFR stratus and areas of fog with
visibilities less than 1/2SM to develop given moist atmosphere
and wet soils. Mountain river valleys are most likely to
experience fog, and have fog entered into the TAFs for LWB and
BCB. Fog will diminish quickly after 11/13Z, though areas of
MVFR stratus will only gradually lift through late morning or
early afternoon before becoming VFR.

Coverage of showers and storms developing with afternoon
heating on Friday will be widely scattered and focused more so
across the mountains. Any activity will be capable of producing
locally gusty winds and brief periods of heavy rain that will
reduce visibilities to less than 1SM. Coverage of showers and
storms will diminish toward 12/00Z with the loss of daytime
heating.


.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

The weather pattern will change little through the end of the
week, remaining conducive for widely scattered afternoon &
evening storms, with higher coverage on some days more than
others. Outside of storms, except VFR but with potential for
locally dense fog and MVFR/IFR stratus developing overnight,
especially for locations that received significant rainfall
during the evening prior.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...NF/WP
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...NF/WP
EQUIPMENT...WP