672
FXUS61 KRNK 141735
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
135 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A front will move across our area this evening reaching the
southeast U.S. and Gulf Coast states Saturday night. High
pressure works in across New England by Sunday keeping us dry.
An upper ridge sets up next week with building heat and
humidity.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 125 PM EDT Friday...

Key message:

   - Marginal risk of thunderstorms with damaging wind this
     afternoon and evening, but only isolated coverage.

Already heated up into the upper 80s around Roanoke late this
morning and should expect lower 90s. Caveat is an area of clouds
moving across the mountains, which could keep temperatures
somewhat lower. High-res guidance highlighting isolated cells
developing between noon-2pm across the Blue Ridge and then
heading southeast to the foothills/piedmont with lower coverage
over WV until late. At the moment leaned this direction. Still
coverage looks sparse but with SBCAPEs increasing to 1500 J/kg
and elevated DCAPE, any storm that can take off would be capable
of producing gusty/damaging winds, hence the marginal risk
mainly along/west of the Blue Ridge.

Storms should fade this evening but cannot rule out a few
pockets of showers through midnight when the front moves across.

Humidity levels drop by Saturday but temperatures tonight to
stay slightly above normal in the 60s for most, with some 50s
across southeast WV and the Alleghanys.

Look for mostly sunny skies Saturday and a less humid/seasonable
day. Scattered cumulus across the mountains should evolve
during the afternoon. A few models suggest isolated showers
across the southern Appalachians but looks meager so kept our
area dry.

Highs will be in the 80s, but dewpoints will be in the 40s and
50s.

Forecast confidence is average on pops this afternoon/evening
but above average on temps/winds and sky through Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1230 PM EDT Friday...

Key Points:

1. Well above normal temperatures Monday.
2. At best isolated late afternoon showers/storms over the mountains.
3. Vast majority of the region will receive no rain.

A look at the 14 June 00Z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500 mb Geopotential
heights shows an upper level ridge over the Midwest advancing
towards our region Saturday night. By Sunday, this ridge is expected
to be centered over our region and stall all while strengthening
through Monday and Monday night. At the surface, on Saturday night,
high pressure is expected to be over Quebec/NY with a ridge axis
extending southeast into the eastern Mid-Atlantic region. As we
progress into Sunday and Monday, this high shifts east into the
western Atlantic where it takes on more of an elongated ridge axis
pattern that extends southwest back into portions of the Mid-
Atlantic and Southeast US region.

Output from the 14 June 00Z Ensemble Situational Awareness Table
shows 850mb temperatures in the +14C to +16C range Saturday night.
For Sunday into Monday values trend warmer each day with Monday
seeing a range of +18C to +20C across the region. The high end of
this range is expected to be across the western sections of the
area. Portions of Southeast West Virginia, these numbers are
expected to represent values in the 97.5 to 99 percentile of the 30-
year climatology. Values within the 92 to 97.5 percentile are as far
east as roughly the crest of the Blue Ridge.

While 850 mb temperatures will well on the warm side of normal, so
too, will be the 700 mb temperatures. During this portion of the
forecast values of +6C to +8C Saturday night. These will be the
lowest values for the remainder of the period. For Sunday and Monday
values close to +9C to +11C or +12C are expected across the area.
These values are no lower than the 90 percentile of the 30-year
climatology. Many sections will have values with the 97.5 to 99
percentile of climatology with a few spots within the 99 to 99.5
percentile range. These high positive anomalies are at the highest
and most expansive on Monday.

A building ridge at the surface, up through the mid-levels of the
troposphere, will provide for well above normal temperatures across
the area by Monday. Additionally with no substantial mechanisms
of lift and substantial capping inversion aloft, precipitation
chances will be very low. About the only chance of precipitation
will be over the mountains. By Sunday/Monday, with the position
of the ridge axis where forecast, there will be a weak onshore
flow from the Atlantic heading weakly upslope across the
mountains. This potential weak upslope moisture flux, combined
with peak heating of the day could allow for very isolated
showers/storms, assuming an updraft finds a weak spot in the
strong cap aloft.

Confidence in the well above normal temperatures is high.
Confidence in the occurrence of showers/storms is low/moderate.
Confidence is specific location of any showers/storms is low.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1230 PM EDT Friday...

Key Points:

1. Well above normal temperatures continue.
2. Still, at best isolated late afternoon showers/storms over the
mountains.
3. Vast majority of the region will receive no rain.

A look at the 14 June 00Z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500 mb Geopotential
heights shows an upper ridge over our region strengthening to an
average of a 5940m closed high over much of the mid-Atlantic and New
England region by Tuesday and Wednesday. By Friday, the average
5940m height remains, but is smaller in area, centered over PA. At
the surface, A west-east oriented high pressure ridge remains over
portions of the Mid-Atlantic region on Tuesday, but there are hints
that by Friday this axis will have shifted slightly farther north.

Output from the 14 June 00Z Ensemble Situational Awareness Table
shows 850mb temperatures very comparable to, or even slightly higher
than, those anticipated on Monday. Temperatures are expected to
range from roughly +19C to +21C, with the Southeast West Virginia
being the central of positive heat anomaly with values there with
the 97.5 to 99 percentile of the 30-year climatology. Values within
the 92 to 97.5 percentile extend east into portions of the NC and VA
Piedmont regions.

At 700mb, while not as significant as the first half of the week,
forecast temperatures around +9C to +10C will place the region. This
range falls within the 90 to 97.5 percentile of the 30-year
climatology. So, the region will continue with temperatures well
above normal.

The same type of weather scenario expected the first half of the
week is expected to continue the second half for the same regions.
Temperatures will be well above normal, and any precipitation will
be late afternoon isolated showers/storms across the mountains.

Confidence in the well above normal temperatures is high.
Confidence in the occurrence of showers/storms is low/moderate.
Confidence is specific location of any showers/storms is low.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 125 PM EDT Friday...

Will keep VFR for most of the period. A storm or two could slide
close to our TAF sites but coverage should stay isolated.
Amendments will occur if needed.

Could have some fog late tonight near LWB, but dewpoint
depression stays wide enough to keep it out of the TAF. Winds
will be less than 10 knots out of the southwest to west ahead of
the front today, then northwest to north behind the front
tonight.

Average confidence for ceiling, visibility, and wind.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

High pressure will build back over the region for the weekend
and into early next week. Aside for some morning river fog in
the mountain valleys, conditions are expected to be primarily
VFR. The chance of showers and thunderstorms will be limited for
much of next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 1230 PM EDT Friday...

With a prolonged period of well above normal temperatures, and very
little, if any, precipitation, our drought conditions are expected
to either remain the same or worsen heading into next week. The next
official drought monitor intensity analysis will be issued on
Thursday, June 20, 2024. The national drought monitor intensity
analysis can be found at droughtmonitor.unl.edu. One can examine the
monitor at the state level and read discussions about the current
intensities on the map by selecting options from the various pull
down menus at the top of the page.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...WP
HYDROLOGY...DS