Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
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815 FXUS61 KRNK 031829 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 229 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will cover the western Atlantic and southeast United States through Tuesday. Daily scattered showers and thunderstorms continue for the region through Tuesday. A cold front approaches Wednesday bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms to the area. The front will move across region on Thursday. A brief break in the wet weather pattern is expected behind the front on Friday and Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 200 PM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - Scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. An upper level ridge axis will stay over the area through Tuesday morning, then drift eastward in the afternoon. With a warm and humid airmass underneath this ridge, scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible each afternoon, fading during the evening. Storms are not expected to become severe, but may produce heavy downpours. Areas that see rain will likely have fog developing in the morning. Areas of dense fog will be centered around lakes and rivers. Fog should lift by 10 AM. Near normal temperatures expected this afternoon. Temperatures will be 3F-5F warmer than normal on Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 200 PM EDT Monday... Key Messages: 1. High probability for showers and thunderstorms mid-week. 2. Warm and humid through Thursday. Upper ridging over the mid-Atlantic will promote warm humid conditions through Thursday. It will become increasingly moist as southwest flow brings higher dewpoints into the region ahead of a cold front...PWATs increasing to near 1.80 Wednesday. A mid-latitude shortwave trough is expected to cross the Ohio Valley Wednesday with buoyancy and dynamic lift leading to numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Wednesday night. Surface cold front is expected to trail the mid-level trough leading to lingering showers Thursday before a bonafide cool-down begins with the passage of the surface front Thursday night. Warm mid-level temperatures are currently expected to limit severe convection Wednesday, but ample low-level moisture and modest buoyancy may lead to pulse severe associated with wet microburst environment and potential for localized heavy rain. There is a marginal risk for rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance Wed/Wed-night per the supportive high PWAT airmass. Showers during this time frame should be very rain efficient. Temperatures are expected to be warmer than normal at night due to the higher dewpoints...lows in the 60s. Daytime temperatures should be muted by cloud cover, but still warm and humid with highs in the 80s and humidity minimums remaining above 50%. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 225 PM EDT Monday... Key Messages: 1. Cooler for the weekend. 2. Shower chances diminish An upper level trough is forecast to settle over Ontario and New England for the weekend. This will advect cooler air from Canada southward into the northern Mid-Atlantic promoting cooler nights and near seasonal temperatures during the day. Shower chances decrease but are not void entirely due to the proximity of the upper trough and cyclonic flow. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 135 PM EDT Monday... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, then fade during the evening hours. Due to the slow movement, coverage, and timing of storms, forecast confidence is too low so will have vicinity showers in the TAFs this afternoon. Fog is expected to develop during the early morning hours, especially across the mountain valleys. Dense fog is likely for areas that see rain this afternoon and near lakes and rivers (KLWB). Fog should lift by 14Z/10A Tuesday. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Scattered storms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. Morning fog is likely in mountain valleys Wednesday. Greater likelihood of flight restrictions/MVFR (or lower) on Wednesday and Thursday with showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front. Friday is expected to be drier and a better probability of VFR conditions behind the front. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RCS NEAR TERM...RCS SHORT TERM...PM LONG TERM...PM AVIATION...RCS