409
FXUS61 KRNK 070736
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
336 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The remnants of Chantal will move northeast of the area later this
morning. Rain associated with Chantal will end as well. Temperatures
warm in the 80s and 90s as skies turn sunny. A daily chance of rain
and thunderstorms begins this afternoon and continues through the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 100 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

1) Flood Watch remains in effect through 9 AM this morning for
portions of Southside VA and the NC Piedmont. Buckingham County
has been added to the watch, while Stokes, Rockingham Co. NC,
and Henry County have been dropped.

2) Isolated showers/storms redevelop this afternoon/evening.

The remnants of Chantal will meander from near Durham, NC to
Charlotte Court House in VA this morning, and will mostly stay
on the SE side of Buckingham County. By 9 AM or so, the
circulation will push northeast out of the area, bringing an end
to the heavy rain we have been seeing near the center of the
circulation. Rainfall totals of 3 to 7 inches have fallen in
Caswell County, with even higher totals to the south. This
translates to about a 200 year ARI over a 3 hour
period...meaning rainfall totals of this magnitude only fall
about once every 200 years in 3 hours. PWATs in the NC Piedmont
and Southside VA are hovering around 2 to 2.4 inches. Slow storm
motion and deep warm cloud depths are also contributing to high
rainfall rates. Flooding will continue to be an issue until
this system moves northeast later today. The Flood Watch has
been extended out in time slightly.

We will see some isolated convection develop this afternoon,
with remnant moisture and temperatures warming into the low to
upper 90s for the mountains/upper 80s to mid 90s in the
Piedmont. SBCAPEs increase to 1200 J/kg over the mountains, and
this is where we could see some activity. Heavy rain under these
storms will be possible, but nothing like we are seeing with
Chantal. Otherwise the severe threat looks low with westerly
winds keeping storms from becoming widespread.

As Chantal exits the area, mostly to partly sunny skies are
expected. Some dense fog is possible overnight into Tuesday
morning, with southerly winds returning. Lows will be in the
60s to low 70s.

Confidence in the near term is moderate to high.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
...As of 300 AM EDT MONDAY...

Key Messages:

1) Active weather through the week

2) Daily showers and storms could bring localized flooding concerns

On Tuesday a southward moving frontal boundary will make its way
into the Mid-Atlantic, and then meander in that region for most of
the following week. The stalled front will guide waves of energy
directly through the area. Excess moisture, high PWATs and hot
afternoon temperatures will make for a recipe of diurnal pulse
convection. The main concern with any thunderstorms will be damage
from severe thunderstorm wind gusts. Additionally, the repetitive
nature of this convective setup, meaning we expect showers and
storms each afternoon and evening, could lead to localized flooding
should any particular area receive heavy rainfall multiple days in a
row. At particular threat of flooding would be the regions impacted
most by Chantal, the NC Piedmont, and the Southside of VA.

Temperatures and humidity will be above normal, so expect it to feel
sticky should you head outside.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
...As of 300 AM EDT MONDAY...

Key Messages:

1) Showers and storms continue

A stationary boundary will be settled somewhere in the Mid-Atlantic
for the majority of this forecast period. The atmospheric
environment will undergo little change, and as such, much of the
description of diurnal showers and storms from the short term
portion of the discussion will apply here as well. The daily
location of the stationary boundary may alter day to day, but more
or less, diurnal showers and storms will spring up throughout the
forecast area. The potential for severe weather is less certain, but
such a long period of time in which rainfall occurs most afternoons
will lead to flooding concerns, especially later in the week as more
of the area sees their soil become saturated and runoff increases.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 115 AM EDT Monday...

Besides LYH and DAN, terminals are VFR, located within the
subsidence side of Chantal. LYH and DAN are still seeing heavy
rain and this will continue through about 12-14Z. Current
conditions are IFR to MVFR, but will gradually lower through the
night into early Monday morning. Otherwise we will see the usual
low fog/stratus at LWB this morning. We will see improvement to
VFR everywhere by mid morning as Chantal moves northeast. VFR
conditions will remain through the end of the TAF period for all
terminals with only isolated chances for thunderstorms in the
afternoon. Current probabilities are not high enough to include
in TAF lines at this time.

Winds vary depending on how close the terminal is to Chantal,
but all will gradually transition to west/northwest by this
afternoon as the center of Chantal continues its north and east
trek. Winds will be less than 10 kts with a few gusts to 20 kts
close to the center of the circulation this morning.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

The forecast area then transitions back into a typical
summertime weather pattern with daily chance of showers/storms
during the peak heating hours each day starting Tuesday.
Morning fog will also be possible each day, especially at LWB
and BCB.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flood Watch until 9 AM EDT this morning for VAZ044>047-058-059.
NC...Flood Watch until 9 AM EDT this morning for NCZ006.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SH
NEAR TERM...SH
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...SH