Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
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192 FXUS61 KRNK 070530 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 130 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build in from the southwest today and linger into Saturday. Another front tracks into the area Sunday with scattered showers and thunderstorms, with mainly dry weather for Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1221 AM EDT Friday... Scattered to broken clouds will clear out through the morning, with drier air to our northwest working into the mountains this morning and piedmont by afternoon. Should be a fairly sunny day with highs close to normal with lower to mid 80s east to lower to mid 70s west. You will notice lower humidity as west/northwest winds will be driving dewpoints down. A few gusts to 20-25 mph possible, especially mountains. Keeping it clear and cooler Friday night with high pressure tracking into the southern Appalachians. Lows will be in the 50s for most, but some 40s in the mountains are likely as well. Forecast confidence is high. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 100 PM EDT Thursday... Key Points: 1. Near normal temperatures. 2. Scattered showers/few storms on Sunday into Sunday night. A look at the 6 June 00Z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500 mb Geopotential heights shows a persistent upper low centered near the Ontario/Quebec border through the period. However, a couple associated shortwave troughs are expected to progress around this low and cross our region. The first of these is expected Friday evening just east of the region, with the second on Sunday evening. At the surface, a cold front is expected to extend from far eastern VA southwest along the coast of the Carolinas Friday evening. By Saturday, a weak high pressure center moves into the area. On Sunday, our next cold front is expected to cross the area and be east of the region by the end of Sunday night. Output from the 6 June 00Z Ensemble Situational Awareness Table shows 850mb temperatures averaging +16C on Saturday, +14C to +16C for Saturday and +12C to +14C for Sunday. Precipitable Water values are expected to average 0.75 inches or slightly less Friday night into Saturday and 1.25 inches Sunday. The values Friday night into Saturday fall within the 2.5 to 10 percentile range of the 30-year climatology. The above weather scenario points to a period with around normal temperatures. Primarily dry conditions are expected through Saturday night. Sunday into Sunday night, look for a return of showers with the passage of the cold front and residual activity from upslope northwest flow across Southeast West Virginia late Sunday night. Thunderstorm potential looks low with forecast CAPE on most models under 500 J/kg. Confidence in the above weather pattern is moderate to high. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 130 PM EDT Thursday... Key Points: 1. Temperatures trending from slightly below to slightly above average. 2. While precipitation chances will not be zero through the period, the vast majority of the region will be dry. 3. While at most scattered in coverage, the mountains have the greatest potential to experience showers. A look at the 6 June 00Z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500 mb Geopotential heights shows a persistent long wave trough extending from southeast Canada into the Ohio Valley. Each day Monday through Thursday, the trough is expected to remain nearly stationary, but there will a gradual trend towards less amplification as ridging across western CONUS shifts into the center of the nation. At the surface, on Monday, a cold front will be positioned along the Atlantic coast. High pressure will be centered across the Central Plains States and Upper Mississippi River Valley. On Tuesday and into Wednesday, a ridge of high pressure will be over the region. On Thursday, is still expected to be over the general area, but potentially trending weaker. Output from the 6 June 00Z Ensemble Situational Awareness Table shows 850mb temperatures around +14C for Monday, +14C to +16C for Tuesday, +16C on Wednesday and a little over +16C for Thursday. Precipitable Water values on Monday are expected to average 1.00 inch on Monday and Tuesday, 1.25 inch on Wednesday and 1.00 to 1.25 inches for Thursday. The above weather scenario points towards a time period with limited precipitation chances and temperature around or slightly cooler than normal for this of year through Tuesday. Around or slight above normal temperatures are expected Wednesday into Thursday. The best chances for showers will come on Monday, and perhaps Monday night while we are still within a northwest flow pattern. For Tuesday through Thursday, while precipitation chances will be low, they are not expected to be zero. While we expect a general region of surface high pressure over the region, additionally over the area aloft will be a weakening upper level trough. The trough, and its expected steep lapse rate aloft, will help promote convection development above where any fledgling towering cumulus develop during the peak heating of the afternoon. Coverage will be isolated with the vast majority of the area receiving no precipitation. Confidence in the above weather pattern is moderate. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1226 AM EDT Friday... VFR expected through the period as drier air works in from the west. A small window of IFR fog at LWB cannot be ruled out, and some models tank LWB at 1/4sm, but given the drier air will lean toward tempo 3sm. West/northwest winds are going to pick up after 14z today with a few gusts to 20-25kts. Winds subside by 00z/Sat. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... VFR for most of the period. Exceptions being a few shower/storms Sunday could bring sub-VFR mainly to the mountains. Isolated chances of showers/storms Monday-Tuesday so low confidence on sub-VFR. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DB/PM/WP NEAR TERM...WP SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...DB/WP