684
FXUS61 KRNK 290907
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
507 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will cross the Ohio Valley tonight and Wednesday
pushing a cold front through the Mid Atlantic region along with
isolated showers. Dry and cooler high pressure will build in
behind this front for Thursday and Friday with below normal
temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

1) A few showers expected again this afternoon with frontal
passage...

Overall pattern features trough in the east and ridging over the
west. Another shortwave embedded within the longwave flow will
pass across the region this afternoon. Mix of sun and clouds
today, starting the day with mostly clear skies, but will have
clouds develop throughout the day. Will be enough lift with the
passage of this wave/cold front for isolated showers in the
afternoon. Best chance for any precipitation will be across the
mountains and southern Shenandoah Valley.

Winds also breezy in advance of the front. West winds will
increase by late morning and will remain gusty into the
afternoon. Some 20mph range gusts possible in the higher
terrain.

Cooler/drier air arrives behind the front tonight with
temperatures dropping into the low 50s and upper 40s in the
mountains. Mid 50s for the lower elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 430 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1). Unseasonably cool through the period.

2). Benign and largely dry weather expected through the period.

A broad and deep upper low anchored over eastern Canada will
only drift very slowly eastward through this period. This will
be the main player in the weather across the eastern U.S.
providing an unseasonably cool and dry northerly flow into the
region through the period. While a few light rain showers remain
possible across mainly the mountains of West Virginia, the
chance for showers even there will diminish as the trough axis
shifts east of the region. Variable mostly daytime low/mid
clouds from steep lapse rates given strong late May/early June
insolation and unseasonably cold air aloft on the order of +6C
on Thursday will diminish going into Friday as temperatures
aloft begin to warm as the upper trough shifts further east.

With 850mb temperatures Thursday in the single digits roughly in
the +5C to +8C range, below normal temperatures will continue,
especially at night. Thursday promises to be the coldest morning
of the week with lows in the upper 30s possible at locations
such as Burkes Garden and Lewisburg and near 40 at Blacksburg
and other similar locations along/west of the Blue Ridge. Most
areas, however, will see lows in the 40s early Thursday. Daytime
temperatures will warm into the 60s/70s west and mostly 70s
east Thursday and Friday. These minimum temperatures are roughly
10-15 degrees below normal and the maximum temperatures are
around 5-10 degrees below normal for late May/early June.

/Confidence Levels in Forecast Parameters/
- Moderate Confidence in TEmperatures,
- High Confidence in Precipitation Probabilities,
- Moderate to High Confidence in Wind Direction and Speed,
- No Thunderstorms Expected Through This Period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 445 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1). Benign weather continues through Saturday.

2). Unsettled weather conditions begin to creep into the area
early next week, beginning Sunday in the west.

3). Temperatures slowly return to more normal levels for early
June.

The quiet pattern of late week will continue into the first half
of the weekend as the large upper low over the northeastern
U.S./eastern Canada slowly drifts east. In its wake, the upper
flow will trend more zonal. This will allow low-level moisture
to slowly increase and disturbances from the Midwest to move in
our direction.

The models continue to slow down the arrival time of any
rainfall next week. It now appears that it will be at least
Sunday afternoon before rain chances are high enough to warrant
a 15% or greater pop. The threat for rain will increase Monday
through Tuesday. Rainfall amounts are expected to be light at
this point and no severe weather is anticipated at this point.
Neither SPC nor WPC have highlighted any threats over the region
for the period at this time.

As 850mb temperatures creep back to more normal levels for this
time of year, namely +12C to +15C by next week, look for
temperatures to recover from the late week/early weekend chill.
Maximum temperatures will warm back into the 70s west and 80s
east by Sunday with low temperatures rising from the 40s Friday
to the 50s and even 60s in urban areas by Sunday and Monday.

/Confidence Levels in Forecast Parameters/
- Moderate to High Confidence in Temperatures,
- Moderate Confidence in Precipitation Probabilities,
- Moderate Confidence in Wind Direction and Speed,
- Low Confidence in Thunderstorm Potential.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Tuesday...

Mostly VFR throughout the valid TAF period.

VFR this morning, but the potential for some patchy valley fog
still remains through daybreak. LWB may experience some vsby
reductions.

Otherwise VFR with scattered clouds through late morning.
Another disturbance may bring a few shower/storms toward BLF/LWB
this afternoon but coverage is too low overall to have in the
tafs.

The wind backs to the west ahead of the wave/front today with
some gustiness to 20 kts possible, then shifts to the northwest
behind the front tonight.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR much of the week, aside from potential fog at LWB/BCB early
in the mornings. Storms may bring sub-VFR Sunday afternoon but
low confidence.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG/WP
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...BMG