579
FXUS61 KRNK 071532
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1132 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the southwest today and linger
into Saturday. Another front tracks into the area Sunday with
scattered showers and thunderstorms, with mainly dry weather for
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1130 AM EDT Friday...

Key Message: Breezy and Less Humid.

Airmass change is resulting in lower humidity. This will make
if feel more pleasant in spite of temperature rebound. Once the
sun starts to set this evening it will then set stage for a cool
night as temperatures slip into the 50s. Mid-upper 40s are
possible in the colder mountain valleys.

In general, expecting a fairly sunny afternoon with highs close
to normal with lower to mid 80s east to lower to mid 70s west.
It will be breezy, the change in pressure resulting in west/northwest
winds of 10 to 15 mph and gusts 20-30 mph. Morning sounding
indicated winds close to 30 kts at the top of what should be the
mixed layer this afternoon. These winds will subside after
sunset.

Keeping it clear and cooler tonight with dry weather persisting
into Saturday. Some increase in upper level cirrus is expected
for Saturday as debris clouds from short wave trough cross the
forecast area from the west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 145 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1. Scattered showers and possible storms Sunday.
2. Chance for isolated to scattered showers in the mountains Monday.
3. Drier and cooler Saturday.

Surface high pressure will remain situated over the region through
Saturday, while an upper trough will sit over southeastern Canada
through the forecast period. The surface high will keep the weather
drier and temperatures near to a few degrees below normal for
Saturday, but pressure rises and some cold air advection will
lead to breezy conditions. Sunday will likely start off dry, but
a cold front approaches from the west through the day, and an
upper shortwave will move through the base of the trough into
the Mid Atlantic, which will lead to increased chances for
scattered showers by Sunday afternoon and evening, and stronger
winds aloft will increase chances for isolated to scattered
storms, with the greatest probabilities along and west of the
Blue Ridge. Any activity will likely wane after sunset, with the
loss of daytime heating and thus decrease in instability.

The front looks to eventually stall across the southeastern states
by the beginning of the work week, while the upper trough digs
farther southward. With the trough remaining over the eastern US
through the start of the week, precipitation chances remain in the
forecast, but are low, and mainly for the mountains Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1. Lower confidence on precipitation chances for the first half of
the work week.
2. Near to just below normal temperatures, but warming through
midweek.

The mid and upper level patterns generally show troughing persisting
over the eastern US through the first half of the work week, and
some ridging developing over the central and western US at some
point during the early to midweek time frame. However, long range
deterministic and ensemble guidance are showing differences in the
evolution of the pattern early in the work week. At this point in
the forecast period, deterministic models nearly two distinct
patterns, as some suggest dry, northwesterly flow for Tuesday, which
would keep the weather precipitation free and just below normal to
near normal temperatures, while some other solutions are suggesting
a secondary upper low developing in the upper Midwest by Monday,
rounding the base of the larger upper trough and bringing more
widespread precipitation to the area Tuesday and Wednesday. Given
these discrepancies in the guidance and resulting uncertainty,
have opted to keep precipitation probabilities on the lower side
to reflect the lower forecast confidence. Later in the week,
the 500mb ridging will push eastward and eventually move
overhead, leading to the return of drier weather and a warming
trend in temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1130 AM EDT Friday...

VFR expected through the 24 hour valid TAF.

It will be breezy this afternoon...west/northwest winds
8-14kts with gusts 20-25kts. Winds subside this evening
00z/Sat.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR for most of the period. Exceptions being a few shower/storms
Sunday could bring sub-VFR mainly to the mountains. Isolated
chances of showers/storms Monday-Tuesday so low confidence on
sub-VFR.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...PM