153
FXUS61 KRNK 081038
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
638 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will promote dry conditions through Saturday night.
A cold front tracks into the area Sunday with scattered showers
and thunderstorms mainly in the mountains. Dry weather returns
Monday, followed by additional opportunity for showers mid-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 113 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Message: Dry through tonight with lower humidity.

Will see a west-northwest flow through the period with some
embedded jet induced high clouds spreading across the sky today,
with some mid deck moving into the region tonight with warm
advection aloft. As front pushes closer a few light showers
could make it toward the mountains of WV by morning.

Enough sun to day will push temperatures to seasonal norms with
mid 80s piedmont to 70s mountains.

Tonight, with some mid level clouds lows should be milder in the
upper 50s to lower 60s.

Forecast confidence is above average on all elements except
average on rain chances late tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 140 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Points:

1. An Autumn-like frontal passage Sunday.
2. Mountain showers possible Monday.

A cold front will move over the area with a west wind already
established Sunday. Showers are possible along western slopes
then fade as they move east to the Blue Ridge. A line of showers
and thunderstorms will redevelop along and east of Highway 29
in the afternoon. The front will then track to the VA/NC coast
overnight with showers coming to an end by mid evening. Rainfall
amounts will range from a tenth of an inch along western slopes
to a few hundredth elsewhere. Severe weather is not
anticipated.

An upper level trough will pivot over the region on Monday. A
few mountain showers are possible during the afternoon and
evening. High pressure will build over the area following the
passing of this trough.

High temperatures through the period will range from the 70s
across the mountains to 80s in the foothills and piedmont. The
coldest day will be Monday as the upper level trough passes
overhead.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 150 AM EDT Saturday...

Surface high pressure will keep the area mainly dry through the
period. An upper level trough may bring a few showers and
thunderstorms to the area Wednesday and Thursday. Chances for
rain either day is under 30 percent.

An upper level ridge is expected to move over the region next
weekend. Near seasonal temperatures expected through the
workweek, then above normal for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 634 AM EDT Saturday...

VFR expected through the 24 hour valid TAF, with a ceiling of
cirrus expected during the day then some mid level clouds Sat
night.

Wind speeds be light into Sat morning, then increase to around
6-10ts from the west/northwest by 16z. A few gusts 15-20kts
possible in the mountains/foothills.

Above average confidence for ceiling, wind, and visibility.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR for most of the period. Exceptions being showers/storms
Sunday could bring sub-VFR mainly to the mountains, but even low
confidence on that. Fairly dry through Wednesday with mainly
VFR.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...AMS/WP