888
FXUS61 KRNK 301806
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
206 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Great Lakes will gradually track across the
Mid Atlantic region tonight through Saturday then offshore by
Sunday. Dry weather with unseasonably cool temperatures will
continue into the weekend. Showers and thunderstorms return to the
region for the beginning of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...

Key messages:

   - Tranquil weather continues

500MB heights rise on Friday with upper ridging over the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys. At the surface, high pressure centered over the
Western Great Lakes will track southeast and will be centered over
Lake Erie by Friday morning. Large diurnal range between minimum
temperatures tonight and highs on Friday due to dry air mass. Lows
tonight will be around 10 degrees below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 500 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

- Benign and dry weather conditions with below normal
  temperatures.

A broad upper low anchored across eastern Canada will continue
to dominate the weather conditions within the RNK CWA throughout
the forecast period. A pocket of unseasonably cold air at 850mb
with temperatures as low as -1C across NY/New England will dip
into the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic through the
weekend. Temperatures through the weekend will average around 10
degrees below normal for minimums and around 5 degrees below
normal for maximums. A few low temperatures in the 30s are
expected at locations such as Burkes Garden as well as
potentially Lewisburg Friday morning and only a few degrees
warmer than this Saturday morning. Normal low temperatures at
this time of year are mostly in the lower to mid 50s. Otherwise,
it will be a beautiful weekend with abundant sunshine and
temperatures reaching the 70s in the afternoon. No precipitation
is expected through the period.

/Confidence Levels in Forecast Parameters/
- Moderate to High Confidence in Temperatures,
- High Confidence in No Precipitation Through the Period,
- Moderate Confidence in Wind Direction and Speed.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 515 AM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

1). Increasingly unsettled weather pattern evolves through the
period.

2). Precipitation chances increase through the period, but
confidence in timing is low.

Upper and surface ridging over the weekend will give way to a
flatter zonal flow. A series of disturbances embedded within
this increasingly zonal flow will impinge upon an increasingly
unstable air mass. The Gulf will become wide open as well during
this time frame. Conditions will become much more favorable for
showers and thunderstorms through the period. While there are no
major synoptic systems slated to cross the area during this time
frame, diurnal convection will definitely be on the upswing.
However confidence in timing and amounts of precipitation is low
at this point. The models have trended slower with the moisture
and disturbances reaching the forecast area, so have favored
lower pops a category or so during the first half of the
extended period at least. Western areas will definitely have
the best chance for precipitation through the period, with
eastern chances the least. Overall QPF looks to be low at this
point.

Temperatures will gradually return closer to normal, especially
high temperatures with lows mostly in the 50s and high
temperatures generally in the 70s mountains to lower and mid 80s
elsewhere.

/Confidence Levels in Forecast Parameters/
- Moderate Confidence in Temperatures,
- Low Confidence in Precipitation Probabilities,
- Moderate Confidence in Wind Direction and Speed,
- Low to Moderate Confidence in Thunderstorm Potential.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...

VFR conditions tonight and Friday.

500MB heights rise on Friday with upper ridging over the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys. At the surface, high pressure centered over the
Western Great Lakes will track southeast and will be centered over
Lake Erie by Friday morning.

Northwest wind gusts of 15 to 20 knots will continue until this
evening. Wind speeds then diminish as high pressure cover the
area.

Lows tonight will be around 10 degrees below normal and that
cooler air will produce patchy MVFR over area rivers and lakes.
Any fog that develops overnight will dissipate quickly after
sunrise on Friday.

High clouds will fill in from the west over the mountains Friday
afternoon.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR much of the week, aside from potential fog at LWB/BCB early
in the mornings.

Storms may bring sub-VFR Sunday afternoon through Tuesday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS/BMG