Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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FXUS61 KRNK 240641
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
241 AM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Northwest winds will become gusty during this evening into
tonight. High pressure should bring dry weather and lighter
winds for Sunday through early Tuesday. The next chance of rain
will arrive by the middle of this week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

1. Dry high pressure builds over the region.

High pressure builds across the east today providing abundant
sunshine and lessening winds.

Still seeing a few areas in the higher elevations gusting into
the 20 mph range, but the overall trend with the winds has been
downward the past few hours. Winds will continue to decrease as
high pressure moves east today.

Temperatures this morning chilly in the 20s and low 30s, but
warming into the mid to low 50s by the afternoon.
North/northeast winds as high pressure wedges south along the
Appalachians. Clear, dry and light winds will allow for another
cold overnight in the 20s and 30s. Favored valleys could radiate
and perhaps see low 20s.



&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 120 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1. Winds approach advisory criteria late Monday/Monday night in
parts of southeast WV and far southwest VA.

2. Minimum relative humidity values fall into the 20s Monday
afternoon.

3. Widespread light rain arrives in the mountains Tuesday into
Tuesday night.

The deterministic models are in good agreement that an upper
level ridge over our region Monday morning gradually shifts
east as a weakening upper level trof approaches Tuesday.

With a stacked area of high pressure over the region Monday
morning, went a few degrees below the NBM guidance for the
usual cool spots like TNB, BCB and MTV. Otherwise, on the
western edge of the surface wedge of high pressure across the
Clinch River Valley and parts of southeast WV, low level winds
increase with the GEFS ensembles indicating a greater than 70%
chance that wind gusts over 40 MPH will be possible in this
region. For now, these gusts appear to remain just below
advisory criteria, but will continue to be highlighted in the
HWO. With the best return of moisture well west of our area
Monday, minimum relative humidity values will be in the 20s
region-wide.

A fairly amplified upper air pattern will persist into Tuesday
as a weakening and slow moving upper level trof approaches
from the west, and with this high amplitude pattern, continued
to slow the westward expansion of rain showers during the day
Tuesday, with the highest PWAT values arriving after 21Z (5 PM).
These PWAT values are only slightly above the climatological
normals for this time of year, so don`t expect any hydrologic
concerns for the short term period of the forecast.

Generally followed the NBM guidance for temps Tuesday and
Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 120 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1. Lower than normal confidence regarding the ending time of
rain Thursday/Thursday night.

2. Above normal temperatures possible next weekend.

The WPC Cluster Prototype Page indicates a modest spread in
solutions regarding the strength and speed a southern stream
upper level system that moves just to our south and shifts east
of our area sometime late Thursday or Thursday night. As this
system becomes slightly negative tilted under the right rear
quad of a strong upper level jet, a coastal surface low pressure
system may form during this time. The location and strength of
this potential low will influence the westward extent of rain
and cloud cover, which obviously will impact temperatures. The
GEFS and NAEFS show a larger than normal spread of QPF for our
eastern areas, like DAN. If the worst case scenario
(stronger/slower) low forms, there may the potential for minor
river flooding with the NAEFS and to a lesser extent the GEFS
indicating small (<30%) chances of rivers exceeding action
stage.

Some of the 12Z deterministic guidance suggests a weaker/faster
solution and thus less rainfall.

Otherwise, near normal temperatures are expected mid to late
week, with the greatest chance of rain on Wednesday. There is
uncertainty with regard to the amplitude and location of a
building upper level ridge next weekend. While it appears the
axis of this upper level ridge will be to our west, there should
be some downslope component to the winds to allow temperatures
to warm on Saturday above values expected mid to late in the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 215 AM EDT Sunday...

Widespread VFR this morning as high pressure becomes the
dominant weather feature across the region. Winds still remain
elevated across the higher terrain, but will begin to taper as
the morning progresses. A few low clouds with cigs in the 1500ft
to 2000ft range remain over portions of southeast West Virginia,
but should diminish by daybreak.

Clear skies for the remainder of the 24hr TAF period.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR conditions are expected for Sunday night through Monday
night. There may be a breezy southeast wind for BLF and LWB
Monday with gusts up to 20 knots. Clouds will increase on
Tuesday as a low pressure system approaches from the west. The
next chance of rain and IFR/MVFR conditions occurs during
Tuesday night into Wednesday. Conditions will gradually improve
by Thursday as the low pressure system heads offshore.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...BMG


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