Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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938 FXUS63 KSGF 091723 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1223 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - An area of showers and storms will continue to push east across south central Missouri early this afternoon. - Residual flooding will likely continue through the night into Monday. - A cooler than average early this week with highs today through Tuesday in the middle 70s. -Warmer Temperatures return later in the week into next weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 335 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Showers and storms continue to develop from central Kansas through the Missouri Ozarks this morning ahead of an upper trough. Heavy rainfall will continue to occur with the storms and where training of storms occur a flooding risk will continue to occur this morning. The heaviest rainfall amounts from Saturday evening have occurred in bands with 3 to locally 6 inches of rainfall already falling across portions of the area. Flooding is ongoing in these locations where the heavy rainfall has occurred. Outside these heavier bands rainfall amounts drop off sharply. The last main round of rain is currently pushing east across central Kansas early this morning as this activity will continue to move east into the area this morning. Additional heavy rainfall will occur with this activity as precipitable water values are around two inches. Where this additional rainfall occurs in areas that already received heavy rainfall, the flood threat will increase. This next round of rain is setting up to occur from Fort Scott Kansas to Springfield to West Plains Missouri this morning. The majority of the rain will end later this morning. A cold front will push south through the area this morning into the afternoon. A few scattered showers and storms will remain possible into this afternoon across far southern Missouri as the front moves south. The overall severe risk is decreasing across the area early this morning as the instability is weakening though a few strong to severe storms will still be possible through this morning with damaging wind gusts up to 60mph and hail up to the quarters this morning, but this will continue to be more isolated in nature. Highs will only warm into the lower to middle 70s this afternoon as cooler temperatures move into the area and clouds remain in place much of the day. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 335 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 An upper level trough will move south through the region early this week. Below normal temperatures are expected through Tuesday as highs in the 70s occur both days. An upper level ridge will build east across the plains towards the region during the second half of the week into next weekend. A warmer air mass will also advect into the region with highs in the middle 80s to around 90 returning to the area during this time. The rainfall chances are overall on the lower side this week. An upper level disturbance will move east across the plains but at this time the ensemble model members show the better rainfall chances remaining west and south of the area. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 For the 18z TAFS, rain has generally ended at the 3 TAF sites, but still have IFR/MVFR conditions with low ceilings. This will gradually improved through the remainder of the afternoon. Drier air will continue to work south into the area with high pressure, eventually clearing things out during the early to middle evening hours. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for MOZ055>058- 066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106. && $$ SHORT TERM...Wise LONG TERM...Wise AVIATION...Lindenberg