Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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487 FXUS63 KSGF 152349 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 649 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain chances (20-60%) today through Monday east of Highway 65. Most locations will see less than half an inch of additional rainfall, with localized pockets up to 1 inch. - A warming trend beginning on Monday will bring above-normal temperatures to the region by mid-week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 A mid-level disturbance across the Arkansas Delta has aided in precipitation development across the eastern Ozarks today. This activity will shift a touch farther west throughout the afternoon, but expectations remain for much if not all of the rain to stay east of Highway 65. Instability has been meager (500-1000 J/kg), so lightning chances are low. With little change to the overall synoptic pattern, low-end PoPs (15-30%) have been maintained through Monday, again for locations east of Highway 65. Additional forecast rainfall totals from this afternoon through Monday are generally less than half an inch, with the 12Z HREF LPMM indicating localized pockets near an inch. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Upper-level ridging building over the Missouri Ozarks will allow for mostly dry weather through the work week. A few ensemble solutions do develop light precipitation across extreme eastern Kansas and western Missouri on Thursday and Friday with some weak shortwave energy transiting the eastern edge of the upper- level trough, though confidence in this solution actually manifesting is low at this point, and PoPs are less than 20%. LREF ensembles depict the omega block breaking down by the weekend. This pattern shift may open the door for greater rain chances west of Springfield, where many locations have received little precipitation in the last several weeks. Temperatures will gradually increase above the climatological normal throughout the week as the aforementioned ridge builds and 850 mb temperatures warm. NBM percentile data indicate a 3-4 degree interquartile range each day, indicating fairly high confidence in the temperature forecast. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 649 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 East to southeasterly winds will continue through the TAF period. Winds will weaken and be light this evening and tonight then will become gusty again during the morning through the evening hours on Monday. An area of light rain showers is currently in place across portions of south central Missouri early this evening. This activity should continue to weaken as it moves west and should remain east of the TAF sites. Additional showers will be possible at times tonight into Monday mainly across south central Missouri generally remaining east of the TAF sites. There is a low chances for an isolated rumble of thunder Monday afternoon. A low level stratus deck will build into the KBBG site again this evening and linger into Monday morning and at the KSGF and KJLN sites tonight into Monday morning. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Didio LONG TERM...Didio AVIATION...Wise