930
FXUS63 KSGF 230516
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1216 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms will develop overnight for locations
  along and south of Interstate 44. A few storms could produce
  hail up to the size of quarters and frequent lightning.

- An additional Marginal (level 1 of 5) to Slight (level 2 of 5)
  risk Thursday night into Friday morning for a few strong to
  severe thunderstorms.

- 50-70% chance for thunderstorms late Saturday into Sunday will
  bring the potential for additional severe weather and
  localized flash flooding. All day washouts are not expected at
  this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 252 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Synoptically, the frontal boundary responsible for yesterday`s
severe weather has settled into northern Arkansas to the
Missouri bootheel with an H8 front extending on the south side
of I-44.

Showers and some thunderstorms that formed along and west of the
H8 front will move eastward across southern Missouri into this
evening. MUCAPES of 500-1000 J/KG may allow a few stronger
storms but widespread severe weather is not expected.

Low end storm chances (20-40%) will continue into Thursday as a
short wave pivots negatively over the Dakotas leading to surface
cyclogenesis over the western Plains. The resultant southerly
flow will advect the front over northern Arkansas northward...setting
off warm advection convection aided by a subtle shortwave
crossing the southern Plains.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 252 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

With the aforementioned Dakotas wave generating a cold front
that will extend southward into the Plains, thunderstorms will
form across the Plains advecting into the forecast area
Thursday moving across the forecast area Thursday night into
Friday. Although timing will preclude the benefit from solar
heating, there will be plenty of instability ahead of this cold
front to lead to the potential for strong to severe weather once
again.

Attention then will turn to the weekend as the western trough
digs into the Central Plains and a broad wave rotates around the
bottom of the ridge setting up diffluence induced rain
chances...and yet another chance for severe weather later
Saturday into Sunday. Despite all the storm systems, it should
be noted that these will not result in all-day rain outs.

In the wake of the weekend wave, upper flow will finally turn
northwesterly bringing a respite from the extended period of
storm chances.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

For the 06z TAFS, starting to see some tiny showers develop just
north of an inverted surface trough over the southwest corner of
Missouri which may be the initial stages of redevelopment
overnight. CAMS are picking up on additional convection
developing overnight generally along and south of the I-44
corridor. Not enough confidence to go with a tempo group yet
other than at BBG so will have to monitor and see how things
initially develop. Should see MVFR and some IFR develop
overnight with lower cloud cover developing. Heavy rain any any
of these showers/storms will also dip into MVFR/IFR if not
already there. Should go back into VFR conditions by late
morning or early afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Lindenberg