698
FXUS63 KSGF 240726
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
226 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms move into the area this morning. Some may be
  severe with large hail and damaging winds.

- Additional strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to
  develop by midday into the evening ahead of the front.

- Additional severe weather and heavy rain chances Saturday
  night into Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 225 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery
and upper level analysis show an upper level low over the
Dakotas starting to pivot and become negatively tilted. Some
embedded shortave energy was aiding in the development of
convection to our south along the Red River valley. A
thunderstorm complex has developed in the plains ahead of a
surface cold front. This activity was shifting eastward across
north central KS and much of central NE early this morning. A
few cells have developed in the warm sector ahead of this over
northern Missouri. Most of the CWA remains cloud free at this
hour. The warm front shifted from southern Missouri 24 hours ago
into southern Iowa early this morning. Dew points in the warm
sector were in the upper 60s to low 70s with surface
temperatures still in the low to mid 70s.

Rest of tonight: Forward propagating Corfidi vectors suggest a
continued eastward movment of the thunderstorm complex overnight
which would keep things north of the area overnight. The cold
front/dry line will shift eastward during the remainder of the
overnight hours and into eastern KS by 12z. May see some
scattered convection develop over our far western CWA by 12z,
but most locations should remain dry during the rest of the
overnight hours.

Today: Scattered morning convection will be possible as the
cold front / dry line move into the CWA this morning by 18z.
Coverage will probably be mostly scattered through the mid
morning hours and should be mostly elevated with a fairly strong
thermal cap in place in the warm sector. Instability will build
up ahead of the front though and will be the focus for
increasing storm coverage this afternoon and evening. Most of
the area will be in a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe
weather this afternoon with the main risks being large hail and
damaging wind. An isolated tornado risk will also be possible.

By late evening, a cooler and drier air mass will have pushed
into most of the CWA with the convection shifting out of the
area with the front. The remainder of the night should be dry
with temperatures dipping into the mid to upper 50s for most
locations.

Saturday: The surface high will shift east of the area on
Saturday and moisture will be quick to return to the area during
the day. Most of the daytime hours should remain dry though
despite strong instability developing over the area as the main
forcing will still be off to the west. Highs will return to the
low to mid 80s over the area and dew points will also rise back
into the mid to upper 60s across much of the CWA.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 225 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Saturday night into Sunday: By late Saturday afternoon,
convection will start to develop to our west ahead of a
dryline/cold front in the plains and upper divergence aloft in
advance of the next shortwave. Thunderstorm chances will start
in the west during the evening with the approach of the frontal
system and then spread east across the area during the overnight
into Sunday as the front moves through the forecast area. All
modes of severe storms will be possible, with damaging winds and
large hail the main severe weather risks.

Monday-Tuesday: An upper level low will push across the upper
Mississippi valley into the Great Lakes region with a
northwesterly flow developing over the area in the wake of this
weekends system. Drier air should move into the area with
generally dry conditions and temperatures near normal for this
time of year in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Wednesday - Thursday: Moisture will begin to creep back to the
north in the middle to later part of next week and we`ll
probably see increased rain chances by the later part of the
week. Temperatures should remain close to normal for this time
of year.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

For the 06z TAFS, we remain capped across the area late this
evening. A thunderstorm complex to the north should continue to
track east and remain north of the area. We should remain dry
for much of the overnight hours. An approaching frontal boundary
from the west will move into eastern KS by 12z and may spark
some convection early this morning after 11z at JLN. Cells will
likely be more isolated or widely scattered initially, but
should increase in coverage as we get into the mid to late
morning and the instability increases out ahead of the front.
Will be carrying prob30 groups for the 3 TAF sites but this may
need to be bumped up to tempo groups in the 12z tafs later.

Generally expecting VFR conditions outside of any convection,
but we could get some MVFR and brief IFR within any convection
that develops later. Some gusty winds out of the south will
develop ahead of the front with winds switching to the northwest
and becoming light behind the front late this afternoon and
evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Lindenberg