Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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464 FXUS63 KSGF 080106 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 806 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Initial round of thunderstorms to move through the region overnight. Some storms may be severe with hail to the size of quarters possible. - Additional chances for strong to severe storms late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night though main concern will be potential of heavy to excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding. - A cooler than average start to next week with highs Monday and Tuesday in the middle 70s. && .MESOSCALE... Issued at 805 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 A few isolated showers and rumbles of thunder have developed across portions of southeastern Kansas and western Missouri early this evening. This activity will be short lived as a cap remains in place across the area and most locations will remain dry through much of the evening hours. Attention then towards to convection that has developed across portions of northwestern Kansas into central and eastern Nebraska this evening. This activity has remained more discrete in nature through much of the evening hours so far but should start to develop into a MCS over the next few hours. The storms will then move southeast into the overnight hours. The better instability will remain west and north of the area tonight. The storms will likely remain on the instability axis moving southeast across northwestern Kansas then may move more east across northern/central Missouri tonight into early Saturday morning. The better instability and therefore severe risk will overall remain northwest of the area but if a strong cold pool develops with the MCS gusty winds will be possible into the area mainly northwest of I-44 tonight. A few of the stronger storms could also be capable of hail up to pennies to quarters with a few of the updrafts. There could also be some locally heavier rain with the storms tonight across the northern portions of the area. The overall better potential for this activity tonight into Saturday morning will be along and north of Hwy 54 with more questions still on how far south the storms can make it into far southern Missouri with more scattered in nature showers and a few storms across far southern Missouri with this activity tonight into Satruday morning. The stroms will start to move into the far northwest portions of the area across southeastern Kansas and western Missouri between 12AM and 2AM tonight. The storms will then move east southeast across the area overnight into early Saturday morning. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 339 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Surface high pressure that led to seasonably warm temperatures and comfortable dew points in the 50s this afternoon will continue to depart into the Ohio Valley setting up a transition to unsettled weather this weekend. Convective allowing models are in agreement with a subtle mid level wave kicking off a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) over central Nebraska, forward propagating into a moderately unstable airmass into southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas later this evening. Questions exist in how the MCS will propagate into Missouri as there is a significant instability gradient orientated along the Missouri/Kansas border as a southerly low level jet across OK into KS veers and weakens into western MO. With instability diminishing further into the state, elevated convection is expected to diminish in intensity then diminish in coverage as it tracks toward Lake of the Ozarks region later tonight. Additional more isolated convection will be possible into southeast Kansas as well. Highlighted the greater likelihood of storms across central MO...with diminishing chances to around 50% along I-44 and then 15- 30% along the Arkansas border...with impacts tied to quarter size hail mainly west of Highway 65 and north of Highway 54. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 339 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 The remnants of the MCS diminishing eastward Saturday morning along with the combination of outflow boundary(s) and a north-south orientated warm front will become the focus for storm development late Saturday afternoon into the night. With sunshine increasing as overnight cloud debris thins, moderate to strong instability will develop as MLCAPE increases to 3000 J/KG. Negatives include an EML/surface capping plus weak 0-6KM shear bring questions to the overall development and organization of convection. A weakening west to east orientated cold front will eventually lay out over the forecast area Saturday night, leading to concerns over a significant rainfall event. Ahead of the front, precipital water will increase to near 2 inches as the warm front clears the forecast area and a 40-50 knot low level jet reforms. Training convection appears likely with conservative QPF ranging from 1-3 inches, though LPMN amounts approaching 6 inches and the max HREF over far southwest MO offering nearly 7 inch amounts. Surface soils have dried a bit but still remain moist potentially leading to a considerable flood threat. As his system departs east on Sunday...upper flow will weaken as the storm track shifts further north shift. A weak wave will advect across the Plains midweek leading to a limited chance for rain...but for most the work week will be dry. Temperatures that start out unseasonably cool will gradual warm back into the upper 80s by the end of the week. && .AVIATION /0Z TAFS THROUGH 0Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 600 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Showers and thunderstorms are developing in central Nebraska. These storms will develop into an MCS which will track southeastward into north-central Missouri. There is some uncertainty as to how far south this storm system will track. Any location which the MCS does go through will see local MVFR ceilings and visibilities, gusty southerly winds, and lightning. Winds will shift more southwesterly by the morning. Low- level wind shear will develop over southwestern Missouri as the low-level jet strengthens overnight. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ MESOSCALE... SHORT TERM...Runnels LONG TERM...Runnels AVIATION...Wise