Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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089 FXUS63 KSGF 071752 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1252 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Multiple chances for rainfall this weekend into Monday with flooding possible. The greatest potential for widespread precipitation will be Saturday evening into Sunday (70-80%). Rainfall placement and amount remains uncertain. - Marginal Risk for severe weather tonight into Saturday morning, then again Saturday night into Sunday. Severe weather threat is highly dependent on near term details. - A cooler than average start to next week will be possible with highs Monday and Tuesday in the middle 70s. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 245 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Today will be quiet with gradually increasing cloud cover and highs in the mid to upper 80s. For this evening into Saturday morning, shortwave energy moving north of here and the low level jet over the area and nosing to our north will lead to an MCS that primarily focuses north of the CWA. Could see some early development over the NW CWA ahead of the MCS, but main concerns should hold off until after midnight and linger into Saturday morning. Severe threat should diminish through the night with a marginal risk for 1" hail and 60mph winds N of I-44 and along/W of Hwy 65 late this evening into the early overnight hours. Heavy rain will be a concern, but with the focus of convection being north of the CWA and mainly peripheral convection over our CWA, the threat for flooding is limited with this round and highest over the far northern CWA. Biggest question is how far south into our CWA does convection develop. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 245 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Depending on clearing and resulting surface heating, severe weather will be a concern Saturday evening into Saturday night. Flooding will also be a concern Saturday evening into at least Sunday. A front looks to stall over the CWA Saturday into Sunday, which will be a focus for training convection given mainly W-E flow aloft. Convection will be sparked initially by shortwave energy. SREF 25th-75th percentile MUCAPE is 2,500 J/kg with deep layer shear of 30-40 kts at 00Z Sunday (Saturday evening). Instability will naturally fade through Saturday night, but remain sufficient for continued convection into Sunday. This may support discrete cells, possibly supercellular, Saturday evening quickly growing upscale, resulting in a large hail and damaging wind threat, although details will depend on short term conditions. If enough clearing does occur, highs are currently forecast to be in the mid 80s to low 90s with heat index values of 90-100 on Saturday. Flooding is looking increasingly likely where training convection occurs late Saturday into Sunday. Models show PWAT values of 2-2.5" along the front, which is around 150-200% of normal. With time we may be able to better pinpoint an area for training convection and flooding, but that is difficult at this time. Our forecast shows a band of 2-3" of rain, but isolated higher amounts are quite possible. We normally like to look at HREF PMM/LPMM QPF values to assess the higher end localized QPF potential, but the HREF only goes out to 00Z Sunday. Early thoughts are that locally up to 5-6" is possible given LREF max QPF output, but stay tuned for updates on this. Confidence decreases further Sunday afternoon into Monday as some models push the front south of the area while others keep it over the area and bring additional MCS activity through the area Sunday night and Monday. Any additional rainfall potential would have a flooding threat given earlier rainfall, so stay tuned for updates on this time period. Sunday through Tuesday looks much cooler with highs in the 70s for the most part. Highs then bounce back into the 80s Wednesday and Thursday. Currently have no precip in the forecast Tuesday through Thursday, but some light precip is not out of the question. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1232 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 VFR conditions will persist through the rest of the day across the CWA. Tonight, showers and thunderstorms will move into the area. However, there is some uncertainty as to how far south these storms will extend, thus thunderstorms were mentioned as a tempo group at KSGF, and prob30 at KJLN and KBBG respectively. Any storms which do move through may lower visibilities to MVFR conditions. Low-level wind shear will develop over southwestern Missouri after midnight tonight as the low-level jet strengthens overnight. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Titus LONG TERM...Titus AVIATION...Schaumann/Kenny