232
FXUS63 KSGF 250006
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
706 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 15-30% chances for a light shower today and tomorrow.

- Much cooler temperatures will occur this week with highs in
  the 60s and 70s.

- Rainfall chances (50-80%) continue to increase for late in the
  week as confidence increases on track of the next system.
  There is the potential for widespread and prolonged rainfall
  with this system by Friday and Saturday as well as breezy
  winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Water vapor imagery reveals an upper-level trough digging
through eastern Nebraska/Kansas and into western Missouri this
afternoon. Synoptic scale lift along with weak mid-level
convergence have sparked the development of a few light showers
that will translate into southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas
this afternoon. Limited PoPs (15-30%) have been maintained
across the forecast area. The lack of quality moisture will
limit rain totals, however, with QPF being light.

The aforementioned trough is progged to eventually cut off an
upper-level low and settle over northeast Arkansas on Wednesday.
Skies will gradually clear from northwest to southeast overnight
tonight with dry air advecting in. Light winds and residual
low- level moisture may support low stratus or light fog across
the eastern Ozarks, but confidence is low at this point.

Wednesday appears to be the driest day of the week as surface
high pressure overspreads the region. The extended reaches of
the hi-res guidance suggests that dynamic lifting may trigger a
few isolated storms across south-central Missouri and the
eastern Ozarks; however, confidence is low, and PoPs have been
limited to 15-25%.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

The synoptic pattern becomes more complex by the end of the week
into the weekend, primarily due to Tropical Storm Helene.
Ensemble guidance has remained fairly consistent in its track
over the last 24 hours, bringing it north out of the Gulf
Thursday into Friday. As it does so, tropical moisture will
surge northward. Its track is expected to spawn interaction with
the aforementioned cutoff low over northeast Arkansas. This
interaction introduces a great amount of uncertainty into the
forecast regarding sensible weather (i.e. winds, precipitation,
temperatures).

From a synoptic standpoint, rain chances ramp up Thursday, peak
Friday and Saturday, and decrease on Sunday. The Extreme
Forecast Index and Shift of Tails continue to highlight the
potential for anomalously high rainfall, with the greatest
signal across eastern Missouri. From a probabilistic standpoint,
the NBM 72-hr QPF 25th to 75th percentile differences are as
high as 6.5 inches in our area, indicating a very high spread in
solutions of rainfall from this system. So, we will stray away
from specific rainfall totals for the time being and continue to
refine the probabilistic information as confidence increases.

Winds will also be breezy on Friday and Saturday with the strong
pressure gradients introduced by this system. NBM mean wind
gusts range from 20-25 mph, though these may end up being too
light due to a low bias in the model.

There is high confidence in temperatures remaining near to below
average through midweek, with small interquartile ranges.
Spreads increase Friday into the weekend with the arrival of the
tropical system, though seasonable to cool temperatures appear
likely.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 705 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Light showers will continue to impact the KBBG area for the next
couple of hours, but with no reductions in flight conditions.
Otherwise, look for VFR conditions at the TAF sites.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Didio
LONG TERM...Didio
AVIATION...Titus