796
FXUS63 KSGF 171849
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
149 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Generally dry and becoming unseasonably warm temperatures
  through the rest of the work week with the hottest day on
  Friday.

- Some low end rain chances late in the week(10-20%)...with
  better chances over the weekend(20-40%).

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 149 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery
and upper level analysis show two main areas of low pressure
over the CONUS. The first is located over the Carolinas and
Georgia and the 2nd over the Rockies. In between we had weak
ridging which was over the forecast area. The morning fog and
stratus had dissipated by mid to late moring, however an
extensive cumulus field filled in rather quickly and now covers
most of the CWA. This was limiting some temperature rise, but as
of mid day, we still had readings from the mid 70s at BBG which
had the morning fog to the mid 80s in parts of central MO.

For tonight, we should lose the cumulus field by late in the
day/early evening with generally clear skies. May see some fog
redevelop along the rivers and lakes once again, but
visibilities are not expected to be as bad as early this
morning. Lows tonight should dip into the mid to upper 50s out
east to the mid 60s in the west.

Wednesday - The upper low over the Carolinas and Georgia should
begin to weaken and open up while the upper low over the Rockies
continues to lift northeast into the northern plains.
Precipitation should stay to our north and west with any
activity that develops tonight and on Wednesday. Highs on
Wednesday should reach the mid to upper 80s and possibly near 90
in parts of southwest MO.

Wednesday Night - The upper low in the northern plains will
continue to lift northeast with an upper ridge axis continuing
to amplify over the area. A low level jet does develop over the
plains just to our west along with some nighttime elevated
instability will need to monitor for some convection potentially
sneaking into our western CWA towards Thursday morning. Lows are
expected to range from the mid and upper 50s in the east to the
mid and upper 60s in the west.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 149 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

For Thursday and Friday, we maintain the upper ridge from Mexico
through the mid Mississippi valley, while 850mb temperatures in
the low to mid 20s(C) are advected into the region. For context,
this would fall into the 90 percentile to daily max values for
850mb climatology. This also looks fairly probable as we are
showing a fairly tight clustering of this data within the LREF
grand ensemble data. Local high temperature climate study which
correlates 850mb temperatures is showing some mid to upper 90s
potential given the forecast 850mb temperatures in the low to
mid 20s(C). This is slightly warmer than what we are currently
going and we`ll need to monitor this trend as we will be
approaching record temperatures(See climate section). By Friday,
we are currently going with upper 80s in the east to mid 90s in
the west. A frontal boundary may help to develop some convection
to our north and west that may sneak into our western and
northern CWA on Thursday and Friday, however, most of our area
will remain dry through the end of the week.


Saturday through Monday: An upper low will move out of
California late in the week and into the Rockies on Saturday and
the plains on Sunday. Moisture will increase over our area ahead
of this feature and our precipitation chances will increase over
more of our forecast area (still only 20-40% at this time).
Temperatures should cool down back into the 80s on Sunday and
the 70s by Monday.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

For the 18z TAFS, morning fog has dissipated and a large cumulus
field has developed over much of the CWA. May go in and out of
sct-bkn conditions around 3500 feet this afternoon, but should
diminish late in the day. May get some more fog tonight near
BBG, but have gone with MVFR conditions to start from 08-14z.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 351 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Record High Temperatures (Joplin):

September 19:
98 (1954) Forecast: 95

September 20:
99 (1954)       Forecast: 96



Record Highest Minimum Temperatures (Springfield):

September 20:
74 (2018)Forecast: 69

September 21:
73 (1931)       Forecast: 70

September 22:
70 (2017)Forecast: 67



Record Lowest Precipitation for Month of September:

Springfield: 0.05" (1928)
September 2024 Thusfar: 0.04"

Joplin: 0.2" (2013)
September 2024 Thusfar: 0.00"

Vichy/Rolla: 0.19" (2017)
September 2024 Thusfar: 0.03"

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Lindenberg
CLIMATE...Camden