495
FXUS63 KSGF 151823
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
123 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances (20-60%) today through Monday east of Highway
  65. Most locations will see less than half an inch of
  additional rainfall, with localized pockets up to 1 inch.

- A warming trend beginning on Monday will bring above-normal
  temperatures to the region by mid-week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sun Sep
15 2024

A mid-level disturbance across the Arkansas Delta has aided in
precipitation development across the eastern Ozarks today. This
activity will shift a touch farther west throughout the
afternoon, but expectations remain for much if not all of the
rain to stay east of Highway 65. Instability has been meager
(500-1000 J/kg), so lightning chances are low.

With little change to the overall synoptic pattern, low-end
PoPs (15-30%) have been maintained through Monday, again for
locations east of Highway 65. Additional forecast rainfall
totals from this afternoon through Monday are generally less
than half an inch, with the 12Z HREF LPMM indicating localized
pockets near an inch.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 1219 PM CDT
Sun Sep 15 2024

Upper-level ridging building over the Missouri Ozarks will allow
for mostly dry weather through the work week. A few ensemble
solutions do develop light precipitation across extreme eastern
Kansas and western Missouri on Thursday and Friday with some
weak shortwave energy transiting the eastern edge of the upper-
level trough, though confidence in this solution actually
manifesting is low at this point, and PoPs are less than 20%.

LREF ensembles depict the omega block breaking down by the
weekend. This pattern shift may open the door for greater rain
chances west of Springfield, where many locations have received
little precipitation in the last several weeks.

Temperatures will gradually increase above the climatological
normal throughout the week as the aforementioned ridge builds
and 850 mb temperatures warm. NBM percentile data indicate a 3-4
degree interquartile range each day, indicating fairly high
confidence in the temperature forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Broken cumulus clouds have produced MVFR ceilings across
southeast Missouri this afternoon. Light to moderate rain over
this area will gradually spread west throughout the afternoon,
though chances of any precip reaching the SGF and BBG are
generally less than 20%. Additional MVFR to IFR ceilings appear
likely overnight into the early morning hours as low stratus
builds down.

A few gusty easterly winds near 20 kt will be possible this
afternoon before subsiding after sunset.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Didio
LONG TERM...Didio
AVIATION...Didio