Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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098 FXUS63 KSGF 141900 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 200 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain chances (30-65%) Today and Sunday east of Highway 65. Total rainfall amounts generally less than 0.50 inch. Many locations will remain dry. - Continued below average temperatures through the weekend with a warming trend next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery and upper level analysis show low pressure over northern MS with a large area of moisture covering all but the western quarter of Missouri. PWAT values over the eastern 3/4 of the state were in the 1.5 to 1.9 inch range. The low was positioned underneath a larger scale ridge axis which covered much of the Great Lakes and Ohio valley regions. Despite the fairly high moisture content over much of the CWA, the main showers will still occurring to the east and north of the low which was mainly still outside of our CWA. Clouds remain across the area and where some clearing has taken place, additional cloud cover has quickly developed. The only exception has been over the western CWA, where more sunshine has occurred. Temperatures early this afternoon were generally in the mid 70s to low 80s. For tonight: the upper low doesn`t look like it will move much and upper level energy associated with the low should aid in bringing shower chances to our eastern counties, with our southeast counties having the highest chances(30-50%). Clouds and higher dew points will keep lows mild tonight, generally in the low to mid 60s. On Sunday, pops will spread a bit further westward into the area as additional upper energy associated with the upper low moves into the area. The highest pops will still remain east of highway 65, but pops in the east will increase into the 40 to 65% range. The cloud cover and rain in the east will keep temperatures quite a bit cooler there in the mid to upper 70s, while in the west mid to upper 80s are expected. Pops will begin to diminish on Sunday night, but still be in the 20-30% range. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Some lingering low pops(15-25%) over the area on Monday with more of a sheared area of upper energy over the area. Upper ridging will then start to build into the area with a low pressure system well to the west on Tuesday. We should start to see temperatures warming into the mid to upper 80s for much of the remainder of the work week. Much of the work week looks to be dry with the main upper storm system to the west, however some convection in the plains may sneak into western portions of the area late in the week. Pops area generally lower than 20% at this time however. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1159 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 For the 18z TAFS, may see some breaks in the overcast at BBG/SGF this afternoon and evening before the low clouds move back into the area overnight into Sunday morning. JLN will mainly be in VFR conditions, however BBG/SGF will have MVFR and IFR conditions. Most of the rain chances through this TAF period will remain east of the terminals. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lindenberg LONG TERM...Lindenberg AVIATION...Lindenberg