176
FXUS63 KSGF 270755
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
255 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions through midweek, with temperatures near
  seasonal norms.

- Precipitation chances will increase towards the end of the
  week into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 251 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Nighttime Microphysics Satellite Imagery shows some thin high
level clouds scattered around southern Missouri. Some isolated
convection can be seen on satellite and radar towards central
Missouri as a subtle shortwave brings upper level energy and
elevated instability to the area. Some of this activity has
filtered into our northern counties, however convection has so-
far remained sub-severe, with the exception of a cell in
Moniteau/Cole counties (bordering Morgan and Miller counties).
Any further convection that filters through the CWA during the
early morning hours should remain below severe limits, with
activity diminishing by sunrise.

Some residual flooding is ongoing across the area as widespread
heavy rainfall was observed over the last 24 hours. As of 245
AM, there are currently two Flood Warnings in effect for far
southwest Missouri (McDonald and Barry counties) and south
central Missouri (Dent, Shannon, and Texas counties), along with
several river flood warnings. With the Memorial Day Holiday
today, remain aware of any flooded low water crossings or
rivers.

With clear skies and high relative humidities/wet soil from the
recent rainfall, some patchy fog has started to become visible
on satellite imagery, which will continue to be possible across
portions of the area early this morning. Currently not expecting
this to become widespread or dense.

Otherwise, the rest of the day today will remain dry with highs
in the low to mid 80s (mid 80s closer to far southeast KS and
the MO/AR border) as surface high pressure filters into the area.
Tonight will yield lows in the upper 50s to low 60s across the
Ozark region.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 251 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

On Tuesday, an upper level low looks to pivot southeast into the
upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions, reinforcing the northwest
flow and surface high pressure over most of the area. This will
allow for dry weather to continue through midweek, with highs
in the upper 70s to low 80s Tuesday, and slightly cooler in the
mid to upper 70s Wednesday.

A shortwave trough looks to push south of the area over the
southern U.S on Wednesday, with an associated surface low and
stationary front bisecting Texas. Any rain associated with this
system should stay southwest of the area, however some low-end
chances (15-25% pops) of scattered precipitation exist in the
far southwest portions of Missouri Wednesday afternoon/evening.
Most of the area should remain dry.

Towards the end of the week, the surface high pressure will
begin to shift east as an upper level system progresses through
Canada/the northern U.S. and several shortwaves push through the
region. As a result, precipitation chances will begin to
increase, with 30-50% chances Thursday night into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

High confidence in VFR conditions persisting through the TAF
period, with nighttime microphysics satellite imagery showing
very thin high level clouds scattered across southern Missouri.
Northwesterly surface winds should remain between 5-10 kts
through this evening before diminishing even further below 5
kts overnight tonight. Some patchy fog may develop in areas that
received ample rainfall over the past 24 hours, however not
expecting this to affect visibilities at the terminals.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Melto
LONG TERM...Melto
AVIATION...Melto