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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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191 FXUS63 KSGF 140529 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1229 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat and humidity that started today will continue into much of next week. - Low-end thunderstorm chances tonight and Friday (15-30%) as a front sags south into the area. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 155 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery and upper level analysis show an upper level shortwave tracking east out of the upper Mississippi valley region into the Great Lakes. An upper level ridge over New Mexico and west Texas extended into the central plains. An upper level low was pushing east into the southern California coast. The main upper level flow remains planted along the U.S. Canadian border. Lower in the atmosphere, a surface front was bisecting Iowa from east central Iowa and extended southwest into northwest Kansas. Moisture continues to pool along the front with instability increasing and this will be the focus for afternoon strong to severe convection north of our area. Temperatures across our area were in the low to mid 80s with heat index values early this afternoon in the mid 80s to mid 90s. Tonight: Thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon to our north over northern Missouri ahead of the front, eventually forming into a complex of thunderstorms and shifting south into our northern CWA(15-30% chance) in the mid to late evening and overnight. Most of the CAMS prognosis have the convection eroding with time overnight as it pushes further south into a less favorable atmosphere for maintaining convection. The main dividing line for these diminishing pops look to be near the I-44 corridor with little to no precipitation chances over southern Missouri. Lows tonight will be warm in the mid 60s to low 70s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 155 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Friday: Most if not all of the convection should end by early Friday morning and the front sinking south into southern Missouri. As we heat back up during the day and become unstable, the front may be the focus for renewed convection, but should remain fairly scattered or isolated (15-25%). Severe storms are not expected with fairly weak shear over the area. Any storms that develop should diminish during the evening with the loss of daytime heating. Friday night: An upper level wave track into the plains with a chance of more organized thunderstorms and possibly our western CWA on the receiving and diminishing stage of these thunderstorms late Friday night into Saturday morning. Believe most areas should remain dry. Saturday-Sunday: Main part of the upper wave will track north of the area. Upper ridge axis will shift east of the area but we should still remain warm and humid over the area given the warm temperatures aloft between 850mb and 700 mb which will also limit our thunderstorm coverage. Heat continuing into next week: Upper ridging will begin to build back to the west over the lower 2/3 of the CONUS throughout the week with the heat and humidity expected to continue through much of next week. Daily highs will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s and heat index values from the mid 90s to around 102. Low end rain chances with the afternoon instability will be possible(10-20%) && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1221 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Anvil cirrus clouds are filtering into the TAF sites as a thunderstorm complex drops south through central Missouri. These are forecast to dissipate as they reach the SGF area, but there is a 15-30% chance that remnant showers may be in or around the area after 07Z. Afterwards, lingering high clouds will remain. A cold front will sag through the area for much of the TAF period, gradually shifting 5-10 kt winds clockwise from SW`ly to E`ly by the end fo the TAF period. Ahead of the front, there will be another low-end chance (15-30%) for isolated showers and thunderstorms at all TAF sites between 19-01Z, but confidence is low in coverage and exact location. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 501 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Record High Temperatures: June 16: KSGF: 97/1952 KJLN: 95/2016 Record High Minimum Temperatures: June 15: KSGF: 74/2022 June 16: KSGF: 75/2022 June 17: KSGF: 76/2016 && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lindenberg LONG TERM...Lindenberg AVIATION...Price CLIMATE...Price