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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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013 FXUS63 KSGF 261049 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 549 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe thunderstorms throughout the early morning hours into late morning. Wind gusts 60-70 mph will be the primary threat. - Still hot today and through the weekend. No heat headlines today, but continue to practice heat safety and stay alert to any forthcoming advisories through the rest of the week. - Another storm system expected Friday night through Saturday night with slightly cooler temps behind it. - Oppressive heat looks to return early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 253 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 A line of thunderstorms is currently moving SSE across northern Missouri producing 60+ mph wind gusts and small hail. This line is expected to stay on its current trajectory and may even accelerate, prompting a newly issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch for much of the area (mainly east of Springfield) until 900 a.m. CDT. Additionally, discrete cells are beginning to initiate in eastern Kansas as a low- level jet begins to nose into the KS/MO border. These have largely remained sub-severe so far, but are in a favorable environment and are starting to develop more impressive cores. These are also moving SSE with additional development behind them into KS. These may impact our farthest west counties before the main line comes through and absorbs them. A second line of storms is positioned a bit to the NW of the line in northern Missouri, over the NE/KS border. This line is expected to merge with the first, and the impact of this interaction is not well anticipated. The whole system may briefly intensify before one line becomes dominant. With MUCAPE of over 3000 and favorable orientation of deep layer shear vectors, the atmosphere is primed for this system to sweep through the area with notable force. Another watch may be needed a bit later for the counties west of Springfield initially left out of the current watch ahead of the westernmost portion of the new mega-line. Wind gusts 60-70 mph are the primary hazard tonight. Rain will end from northwest to southeast through late morning and midday. Clouds appear to clear out quickly behind the rain allowing for highs to warm into the mid 80s (east) and low 90s (west). Heat Index values will get into the low 90s (east) and low to mid 100s (west). It will feel hottest in the far southwest corner of MO, but values of 105 or greater should be sparse if present at all, so no Heat Advisory needed today. Still, the heat may be oppressive especially in the south and west, so continue to practice heat safety today. Quiet night tonight with lows in the low to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 253 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Behind the cold front that is forcing our severe storms tonight, temperatures will drop a bit for Thursday, with most seeing Heat Index values in the upper 80s and those in the west and south seeing values in the low 90s. Some transient shortwave energy may allow for scattered showers across central Missouri Thursday into Friday night, but the main system arrives Friday night through Saturday night. Details on this activity are still coming through, but the Storm Prediction Center has outlined the northern half of the area in a Marginal (1/5) risk for severe thunderstorms Friday (Day 3). We`re still seeing heat through the weekend, but some relief can be expected on Sunday behind this storm activity. High temperatures look to be in the mid to upper 80s with Heat Index values largely remaining under 90. Unfortunately, ridging appears to build back in for the beginning of the work week, bringing oppressive heat once again. Currently forecasted Heat Index values are pointing to more Heat Advisories being needed, but we will have to see how this week- out guidance changes as we get closer. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 531 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Thunderstorms are moving through the area this morning producing gusty winds of 60-70 mph. These thunderstorms are lowering ceilings and reducing visibility down into the IFR/LIFR range in some places. This precipitation will continue until late morning, though the severe winds will be limited to the front edge of the line of storms and shorter lived. After the storms move out around midday, clear skies will quickly return. Winds will turn from northwesterly late morning to northerly to northeasterly/easterly by the end of the TAF period. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ MESOSCALE...Burchfield SHORT TERM...Nelson LONG TERM...Nelson AVIATION...Nelson