263
FXUS63 KSGF 290518
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1218 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms possible (30-70% chance) tonight into Saturday
  morning north of I-44. High winds and large hail will be the
  main concerns, but confidence is limited and coverage may be
  sparse.

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for the Ozarks from 10am through
  8 pm tomorrow with Heat Index values between 103 and 110
  across the region.

- Additional rainfall Saturday night into Sunday morning.

- A break from the heat Sunday with additional rain chances
  early, but a quick return to hot and humid conditions early
  next week.

&&

.MESOSCALE...
Issued at 905 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Storms have developed across northeastern Kansas this evening.
This activity will continue to move east into northwestern
Missouri. There is a strong cap across southern Missouri, with
the KSGF 00Z sounding showing -119 J/KG of MLCIN. The cap is
weaker north of the area where the storms are, and the ML cape
will increase tonight. Uncapped MUCAPE will remain across
northeastern Kansas into Central Missouri tonight with the cap
holding on to the south across southern Missouri overnight. The
cap will be weakest for locations along and north of Highway 54.
Current expectations are for the convection to potentially
clip the far northern portions of the area, north of Highway
54, starting around 11PM to midnight tonight. The convection
should then continue to follow the uncapped instability
gradient and track off to the east. There will be a risk for
strong to severe storms with this activity with damaging wind
gusts to 60 mph and hail to the size of quarters the main risk.
Locally heavy rain will also occur with the storms. The best
potential will be for locations north of Highway 54 tonight.

Lift and an area of uncapped MUCAPE will remain in place across
northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri into the overnight
hours. Additional storm develop will likely develop and this
activity will move more to the south to southeast. If this
activity develops a strong cold pool, it could move south into
the area overnight. With the better upper level support and
stronger cap, this activity will likely weaken as it moves
south before completely dissipating. The best potential will
again be along and north of Highway 54 but could make if at as
far south as I-44 before completely dissipating. There could be
a few strong to severe storms with this activity with gusty
winds up to 50 to 60mph the main risk. There will also be a
locally heavy rainfall risk with this activity and could lead to
a flooding risk where storms can back build and track across
the small locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Residual shower activity, some of which may not be reaching the
ground, from overnight convection in Kansas was moving across
the region this afternoon. The associated cloud cover was
helping to limit the heat this afternoon. Most readings across
the Ozarks were in the middle 80s to around 90 degrees or right
around average for this time of year.

An upper level wave, albeit weak, along with an inverted trough
across the plains was helping to tighten the surface gradient
this afternoon. This has allowed for gusty winds to develop with
20-30kt gusts measured at times. As the upper trough moves east
overnight tonight it will begin to drag trough and attendant
cold front across the plains towards the Ozarks.

Looking at the synoptic pattern and output for CAMS for tonight
into Saturday morning there is a potential for some strong to
severe storms. The CAMS were either rather robust with
convection or non-existent. In looking at the  output, there is
the possibility for wind gusts to 60 mph and hail to quarters
in size where storms can take advantage of the instability in
place (MLCAPE 2000-3000j/kg) however, lapse rates are modest and
convergence is not really strong. The best potential loos to be
across central Missouri, though if a cold pool develops or the
system develops into an MCS it may make its way to the Arkansas
State line, but question remain in this occurring. With that
said there is a SPC Slight and Marginal risk across the northern
portions of the Ozarks for tonight, after Midnight into
Saturday.

During the day Saturday temperatures are expected to climb into
the middle to upper 90s with heat indicies in the 103 to 110
range thanks to strong warm air and moisture advection ahead of
the cold front. This has resulted in a Heat Advisory being
issued for all of the area from 10am through 8pm.

With the heat and the vicinity of the front as it moves south,
isolated showers or storms may develop during the day but
coverage and confidence in this is limited.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

The cold front will make its way through the region Saturday
night into Sunday morning with the front and any attendant
storms or rainfall moving south of the region by lunchtime.

The cooler air moving into the region behind the front will
bring a respite from the heat with high Sunday only in the lower
to middle 80s.

The break in the heat will be brief however as ridging returns
and temperatures climbing rapidly into the 90s with heat
indicies above 100 again by the middle of next week. If these
trends continue, heat headlines may be needed again next week.

Precipitation chances return mid- to late-week as another trough
moves through behind the ridge. Hot an humid conditions are thus
expected through next week and into the 4th of July with
additional chances for showers and storms into the coming
holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Storms are moving into the northwest this evening capable of
50-60 mph winds. They should remain north of the TAF sites, but
included PROB30 for SGF and JLN beginning at 9Z. Some LLWS is
possible at JLN around this time. Otherise, VFR CIG/VIS for the
period with winds shifting frmo southerly to westerly to
northerly. More storm chances later on this evening, but
generally PROB30 and less through 6Z.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 302 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024


Record High Temperatures:

July 2:
KSGF: 100/1933
KJLN: 103/2011

July 3:
KSGF: 98/2011
KJLN: 100/2011


Record Low Temperatures:

July 1:
KVIH: 56/1951


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 29:
KSGF: 80/1936

July 2:
KSGF: 76/1933

July 3:
KSGF: 77/2018

July 4:
KSGF: 78/1901

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Wise
SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Nelson
CLIMATE...Nelson