972
FXUS63 KSGF 221952
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
252 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Slight risk (level 2 of 5) for a few strong to severe
  thunderstorms continues for late this afternoon into the early
  evening Primary hazards are hail to the size of quarters and
  damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph.

- An additional Marginal (level 1 of 5) to Slight (level 2 of 5)
  risk Thursday night into Friday morning for a few strong to
  severe thunderstorms.

- 50-70% chance for thunderstorms late Saturday into Sunday will
  bring the potential for additional severe weather and
  localized flash flooding. All day washouts are not expected at
  this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 252 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Synoptically, the frontal boundary responsible for yesterday`s
severe weather has settled into northern Arkansas to the
Missouri bootheel with an H8 front extending on the south side
of I-44.

Showers and some thunderstorms that formed along and west of the
H8 front will move eastward across southern Missouri into this
evening. MUCAPES of 500-1000 J/KG may allow a few stronger
storms but widespread severe weather is not expected.

Low end storm chances (20-40%) will continue into Thursday as a
short wave pivots negatively over the Dakotas leading to surface
cyclogenesis over the western Plains. The resultant southerly
flow will advect the front over northern Arkansas northward...setting
off warm advection convection aided by a subtle shortwave
crossing the southern Plains.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 252 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

With the aforementioned Dakotas wave generating a cold front
that will extend southward into the Plains, thunderstorms will
form across the Plains advecting into the forecast area
Thursday moving across the forecast area Thursday night into
Friday. Although timing will preclude the benefit from solar
heating, there will be plenty of instability ahead of this cold
front to lead to the potential for strong to severe weather once
again.

Attention then will turn to the weekend as the western trough
digs into the Central Plains and a broad wave rotates around the
bottom of the ridge setting up diffluence induced rain
chances...and yet another chance for severe weather later
Saturday into Sunday. Despite all the storm systems, it should
be noted that these will not result in all-day rain outs.

In the wake of the weekend wave, upper flow will finally turn
northwesterly bringing a respite from the extended period of
storm chances.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to maximize over south
central Missouri into this evening with multiple bands of clouds
outside of the storms ranging from 3000-7000ft. TSRA chances
will then remain largely along the Arkansas border overnight.

IFR-MVFR cigs will build northward after midnight as moisture
flows northward over the front to the south. These ceilings will
lift northward as the front begins moving northward into
Thursday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Runnels