682
FXUS63 KSGF 142341
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
641 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances (30-65%) Today and Sunday east of Highway 65.
  Total rainfall amounts generally less than 0.50 inch. Many
  locations will remain dry.

- Continued below average temperatures through the weekend with
  a warming trend next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery and
upper level analysis show low pressure over northern MS with a large
area of moisture covering all but the western quarter of Missouri.
PWAT values over the eastern 3/4 of the state were in the 1.5 to 1.9
inch range.  The low was positioned underneath a larger scale ridge
axis which covered much of the Great Lakes and Ohio valley regions.
Despite the fairly high moisture content over much of the CWA, the
main showers will still occurring to the east and north of the low
which was mainly still outside of our CWA.  Clouds remain across the
area and where some clearing has taken place, additional cloud cover
has quickly developed.  The only exception has been over the western
CWA, where more sunshine has occurred.  Temperatures early this
afternoon were generally in the mid 70s to low 80s.

For tonight: the upper low doesn`t look like it will move much and
upper level energy associated with the low should aid in bringing
shower chances to our eastern counties, with our southeast counties
having the highest chances(30-50%).  Clouds and higher dew points
will keep lows mild tonight, generally in the low to mid 60s.

On Sunday, pops will spread a bit further westward into the area as
additional upper energy associated with the upper low moves into the
area.  The highest pops will still remain east of highway 65, but
pops in the east will increase into the 40 to 65% range.  The cloud
cover and rain in the east will keep temperatures quite a bit cooler
there in the mid to upper 70s, while in the west mid to upper 80s
are expected.  Pops will begin to diminish on Sunday night, but
still be in the 20-30% range.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Some lingering low pops(15-25%) over the area on Monday with
more of a sheared area of upper energy over the area. Upper
ridging will then start to build into the area with a low
pressure system well to the west on Tuesday. We should start to
see temperatures warming into the mid to upper 80s for much of
the remainder of the work week. Much of the work week looks to
be dry with the main upper storm system to the west, however
some convection in the plains may sneak into western portions of
the area late in the week. Pops area generally lower than 20% at
this time however.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 640 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

A few light rain showers continue to slowly move east across
portions of south central Missouri this evening. This activity
should continue to dissipate this evening and remain well east
of the TAF sites. Winds will weaken this evening and tonight
then will pick up and be gusty at times late Sunday morning into
the afternoon hours. Some low level clouds will push in to
portions of south central and southern Missouri tonight into
Sunday morning with MVFR and possibly IFR ceilings. Some light
showers will be possible mainly across south central Missouri
late tonight into Sunday morning and again Sunday afternoon and
evening with a few storms possible too.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Wise