Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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323 FXUS64 KSHV 031953 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 253 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday Night) Issued at 253 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Active weather will continue to impact the Four State Region with yet another round of severe thunderstorms possible through the evening. This is due to an ongoing synoptic setup (ridging to our west, troughing to our northeast) allowing for northwesterly flow to continue channeling disturbances across the Southern Great Plains into the Four State Region. Including the latest round expected to arrive through this evening into the night. Given the conducive enough atmosphere, the SPC has accordingly issued a new Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 8PM CDT. Convection associated with this disturbance will diminish by tomorrow morning and temperature maximums/minimums will remain in the lower 90s/low-to- mid 70s, respectively. /16/ && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 253 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 A fairly active weather pattern will continue through the rest of the week into the weekend across the Four State Region. The aforementioned synoptic setup will not change much until ridging across the Four Corners/West Texas builds eastward into our area by the weekend. Until then, additional MCSs cannot be ruled out and are notoriously tricky to catch in their initiation, speed, and intensity by high-resolution guidance, reducing ideal forecast certainty. That said, the best windows for more activity will be on Wednesday and later this weekend as a frontal boundary somewhat interrupts the best environment for convection between those two times. Temperature maximums/minimums will remain near-to-above normal in the lower 90s/mid-70s, respectively. /16/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 A mix of MVFR and VFR ceilings late this morning is expected to give way to a low-end VFR ceiling into the afternoon, with several rounds/areas of convection developing. Scattered thunderstorms are expected across Deep E TX, with an MCS moving north to south across northern terminals. Some uncertainty in timing and exact location will maintain lower confidence with convection at terminals through the evening, especially with the MCS. Expect a short period of quiet weather into the overnight period, with ceilings dropping to MVFR. Overcast conditions will mostly prevent fog development, but still cannot rule out patches of low vsbys during this time given expected heavy rain with the MCS/general convection. Another MCS appears likely early Tuesday morning, affecting all terminals, but its evolution will be affected by Monday`s MCS, casting even more uncertainty through the latter half of the TAF cycle. Winds will remain S/SE thru the period generally 5-10kts, although temporarily erratic and gusty in and around convection. Kovacik && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 74 90 76 91 / 30 30 10 40 MLU 72 89 73 90 / 50 40 10 50 DEQ 68 85 70 88 / 40 30 30 30 TXK 71 89 72 88 / 50 30 20 40 ELD 69 87 71 87 / 60 40 10 50 TYR 73 90 75 90 / 30 20 10 30 GGG 71 89 74 89 / 30 30 10 40 LFK 74 91 76 93 / 30 20 10 30 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...23