130
FXUS64 KSHV 301833
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
133 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1025 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Scattered mainly showers are developing quickly this morning along
a residual shear axis from portions of EC and NE LA into NW LA
with newest development noted in advance of a decaying storm
complex across NC TX. With PWATS running some one half inch higher
today compared to Wednesday, not to mention forcing along the
above mentioned shear axis and additional forcing moving our way
from the northwest, should`t be too difficult to see at the very
least, scattered to numerous areas of convection continue to
bubble up, especially with the aid of peak heating later this
afternoon. Did adjust pops slightly to mimic current trends for
the remainder of the morning but pop coverage looks good for the
afternoon hours.

Likewise, adjusted hourly temperatures slightly based on current
diurnal trends but did not deviate much from the previous
forecast.

Update has already been sent...13.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday)
Issued at 101 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Upper-level ridging across Mexico will allow for near zonal to
northwest flow across the ArkLaTex today. At the surface, a weak
latitudinally oriented frontal boundary across the northern gulf
coast to lift north allowing for a fairly decent coverage of
convection across the ArkLaTex this afternoon. A decaying MCS
currently developing across Kansas, Nebraska and Oklahoma will
eventually push through the ArkLaTex later this evening with a
marginally severe threat for hail, damaging wind gusts, and
locally heavy rainfall.

A second, more robust MCS will roll through central Texas into
mainly east and northeast Texas shortly after midnight tonight.
Model divergence in timing and intensity with this convective
complex makes for a somewhat difficult forecast. There is some
basic agreement that the MCS will likely be in its mature stage as
it moves into east and northeast Texas with some weakening
expected through daybreak. However, renewed convection is expected
during the day on Friday along the remnant outflow boundary as an
upper-low and attached trough further destabilize the atmosphere
across the ArkLaTex at the time of increased diurnal heating. /05/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 101 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Upper-level flow to become more zonal as we move into the long
term period. At the surface, a cold front in the wake of a
departing surface front will linger across the ArkLaTex through
the weekend into early next week. A series of upper-level
disturbances in the vicinity of the front will allow for
progressive rounds of convection through the long-term period.
Specifically, some of the stronger convective episodes will occur
on Saturday afternoon and evening, again on Sunday evening, and
possibly during the day on Tuesday. However, with this kind of
pattern, wide variations in timing and intensity of these
convective episodes can be expected.

Storm total rainfall through the next seven days may be
significant with portions of south Arkansas and north Louisiana
possibly receiving up to 4 inches of rain with widespread
rainfall totals across the remainder of the ArkLaTex around 2 to 3
inches. /05/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 116 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

For the 30/18z TAFS...A very challenging next 24 hours for TAFS.
Generally a mix of VFR and MVFR at sites currently. However,
showers and thunderstorms are starting to form across the region,
which will contribute to lower flight conditions. Models are
having trouble pinpointing the expected convection throughout the
TAF period, so decided to go with VCTS, because some convection
is expected. Low cigs will build into the region overnight, with
possibly some patchy fog. Expect additional convection by the end
of the period. /20/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  84  72  83  71 /  60  50  60  50
MLU  85  69  85  68 /  60  40  70  50
DEQ  81  66  79  65 /  60  70  60  60
TXK  84  68  81  68 /  60  60  60  60
ELD  82  66  82  65 /  50  50  70  60
TYR  84  71  81  70 /  60  60  60  40
GGG  84  70  81  69 /  60  60  60  40
LFK  84  71  83  70 /  60  50  70  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...20