003
FXUS64 KSHV 241558
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1058 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1054 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

The only noteworthy modification necessary at this time was
expanding the slight chance PoPs across east Texas further north
towards the I-20 corridor through the 18Z hour. Otherwise, the
overnight forecast package appears on track.

/26/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1259 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

The first cold front of the forecast period has come to a halt,
bisecting the region just to the south of I-30. This progression
is actually a bit farther east than previously anticipated, which
in turn, will push the better rain chances today farther south and
east. As we wait for rain chances to increase area-wide tonight
ahead of the next longwave trough, the best chance for a shower
today will likely be south of the I-20 corridor. Highs today will
range in the mid-80s to low-90s, before the cold front drops highs
into the low to mid-80s come this time tomorrow.

/44/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1259 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

The long-term still looks to be dominated by two main features:
the closed low working south from the Plains, and upcoming
tropical system Helene. In the short-term, the closed low will
push a stronger cold front through the region, cooling things off
into the weekend. However, by the weekend, this closed low will
begin interacting with Helene, as the two begin to spin around
each other in a Fujiwara interaction. This will allow for some
wrap around precipitation in our northern zones into Saturday,
before the low`s eventually shift off to the northeast. Here, the
low will likely anchor somewhere over the midwest, allowing for
dry air to keep working into the region under north flow.
Afternoon highs will climb back into a seasonal feel, with the
aforementioned dry air helping in keeping overnight lows seasonal
for the rest of the long-term as well.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

For the 24/12z TAF update...Satellite imagery and surface
observations are showing some low to mid level cloud cover moving
across the region. Radar imagery is showing some returns to the
west of our area in the DFW metroplex that will slowly move
towards our area. I have mention of VCSH and VCTS in for terminals
along and south of I-20 today. In addition, mostly cloud to
overcast skies are expected throughout the period. /33/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  67  82  64 /  10  20  20  10
MLU  91  66  82  62 /  20  20  30  10
DEQ  87  60  83  57 /   0  60  10   0
TXK  88  64  82  60 /   0  40  20   0
ELD  88  63  80  58 /  10  20  30  10
TYR  89  66  82  61 /  20  30  20   0
GGG  89  65  81  60 /  20  30  20   0
LFK  90  68  83  63 /  40  30  30  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...33