103
FXUS64 KSHV 231721
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1221 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1009 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Upper-level ridge centered over Texas to maintain sufficient
subsidence to allow for temperatures across the region to climb
into the mid to upper 90s. The combination of temperatures and
afternoon dewpoint values in the lower 70s, will drive heat index
values to around 105 degrees today. A Heat Advisory is in effect
for this afternoon and will continue for the next several days.
Forecast is on track this morning with no updates needed at this
time. /05/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday)
Issued at 133 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

After some internal discussion, and some discussion with our
surrounding offices, we just decided to go ahead and issue the
Heat Advisory beginning today. While not all locations in the Heat
Advisory will feel above 105 degrees today, a good portion of the
region will, and almost of it will by Monday. This Heat Advisory
is in effect through at least Tuesday, with extensions the next
few days likely. Aside from the heat, a stray thunderstorm may be
possible in our north zones today, as the flow aloft get pushed
into a pseudo NW pattern, but widespread rainfall is not
anticipated.

/44/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 133 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

If I`m being entirely honest, I probably could have issued this
Heat Advisory for the entire week and it would verify. Afternoon
highs will hover in the upper-90s and low-100s well into next
weekend, with heat index values over 105 degrees during this
timeframe as well. Rain chances still appear to increase by
Wednesday as a trough and cold front begin to move through the
Midwest. Unfortunately, the low pressure appears to be forming
farther to east, taking the best rain chances east with it. In
turn, widespread rainfall with this midweek system doesn`t appear
likely. Rain chances will linger in our southern zones for the
remainder of the week, as surface flow turns to the south. This
will allow for the typical diurnal convection that are all to used
to seeing around this time of the year.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

For the 23/18Z TAF update, VFR vis/cigs are likely through the
period with very few exceptions in the forms of -SHRA/VCTS through
24/03Z for MVFR cigs across the far northern airspace and MVFR vis
across the far southern airspace from potential low cloud
development. Surface winds will remain light below 5 kts. /16/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  80  99  80 100 /   0  10   0  10
MLU  78  97  77  98 /   0  10   0  10
DEQ  74  98  74  97 /   0   0   0  10
TXK  78 100  79  99 /   0  10   0  10
ELD  76  98  76  98 /  10  10   0  10
TYR  77  97  78  98 /   0  10   0   0
GGG  76  98  77  98 /   0  10   0   0
LFK  76  98  75  98 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...16