Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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646 FXUS64 KSHV 191959 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 259 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday Night) Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 The current synoptic pattern is characterized by a strengthening upper-level ridge axis across the Texas Big Bend region and along Rio Grande Valley extending northward into the Southern Plains. This ridge will be the dominant feature through this short-term period and beyond, driving temperatures even higher on Friday with mid 90s expected across the vast majority of the region. Much like today, heat index values will exceed 100 degrees over much of the region during afternoon peak heating but should remain just below our heat advisory thresholds, although cannot completely rule out brief periods where criteria is reached in our southernmost zones across East Texas and North Louisiana. Overnight low temperatures will largely range through the lower to mid 70s aside from some isolated upper 60s across a few of our northernmost locations. /19/ && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 The late summer heat will continue on into the weekend even as we welcome the first day of autumn on Sunday. Expect lower to mid 90s for highs both Saturday and Sunday with the upper-level ridge axis still anchored across the region while a trough begins to dig from the Rockies eastward into the western Great Plains late on Sunday into early next week. The trough will help to nudge a cold front southward into the I-30 corridor late Monday into early Tuesday. Unfortunately, confidence isn`t particularly high on this front moving much farther south on Tuesday before stalling out. At a minimum, the front will serve as a focus for isolated convection so have held on to low-end PoPs areawide on Tuesday and through Wednesday given the continued uncertainty with respect to this frontal boundary and how much progression it will make into the region by the middle of next week. /19/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1206 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 For the ArkLaTex terminals, fair wx cu field is 3-5kft and will thin out later this aftn. Few cirrus/SKC overnight with a touch of BR at a few sites 10-13Z. Otherwise repeat performance to end the work week and likely linger all weekend with a big upper ridge over camping out over TX/LA. Our next cool front will be just brushing in to about I-20 middle of next week, so that`s our next expectation for some widespread convection. /24/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 74 96 76 94 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 69 94 69 93 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 68 95 70 95 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 72 97 74 96 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 69 95 70 94 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 74 96 74 96 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 72 95 73 95 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 73 95 72 93 / 0 0 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...19 LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...24