Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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120 FXUS64 KSHV 020925 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 425 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Monday) Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Quiet Sunday morning going with fair skies north of I-20 and anvil cirrus over the south from distant central TX thunderstorms. Air temperatures are coolish in the wake of last evening`s heavy rainfall with mostly mid to upper 60s and a few sites around 70 degrees. Many sites remain calm with patchy fog in a 1 to 3 mile restriction at the worst over NE TX, where skies have mostly clear longest. Radar is likewise quiet, but a few small showers are sliding east across Toledo Bend this hour. We will likely see a batch of morning low clouds for several hours. The short term models all agree we will see a push from the SW today across east TX and our Parishes south of I-20. The boundary laid down recently separates higher 70 dew points that will spread inland with heating. Our KSHV 88D VAD wind profiler is showing SW flow 20-30KT up to near 8kft, before swinging around much lighter NE flow. So this sea breeze look will lift inland late this morning and through this afternoon with showers and thunderstorms. The SPC has a Marginal Risk up to Tyler and over to about Alexandria for their day 1 outlook. This will wind down with the setting sun, but coverage up into NE TX near Texarkana will make a run for Ruston and Monroe with just a bit more QPF. Just quick passing rains today and nothing really widespread heavy. Skies will thin out again this evening with morning lows looking a little warmer with more lower 70s around. The GFS is looking at another nocturnal push down the OK/TX Red River valley, that will edge into our I-30 corridor before daybreak on Monday. This activity will continue eastward over S AR before falling apart mid to late morning. The NAM is very similar early, but with nothing much in the heat of the day, while the GFS and ECMWF continue with TX/LA afternoon coverage until sunset. Overall, less organizational push compared to what has been the case for us lately in the parading MCSs. The WPC has sparse small change amounts with tenths and quarters of an inch here and there. There are a few tiny areas with a half to maybe inch in a few bullseyes, bringing up a Marginal Risk matching up closely with the SPC outlook. Meanwhile, both today and tomorrow will see afternoon highs very close to average for early June in the upper 80s. /24/ && .LONG TERM... (Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 As we continue into the new work week things finally appear to see less rain storms affecting our forecasts and just more June sunshine with more lower 90s spreading around with plenty of humidity. And we can expect the morning lows to continue warming midweek with less nocturnal convective activity and just some diurnal coverage. The SPC has another Marginal Risk for Monday`s nocturnal push and then we are general for Tuesday into Wednesday. Nothing yet in the days 4-8 with low confidence at this time. The medium range models look at one last weak push perhaps early on Wednesday for at least our I-30 corridor. Then we wait with just isolated activity for Thursday to ramp up again on Friday with a weak frontal passage. A 1017mb high pressure area will push into the middle MS River Valley and that appears to have a nice dry weekend in store for us next attempt along with a little less humidity and highs back to upper 80s in many cases. /24/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 For the 02/06Z TAF period, the majority of convection has exited our airspace with all terminals now rain-free to begin the period. In its wake, light winds and rain-soaked soils should help induce patchy fog throughout much of the overnight until after daybreak when improvements should commence. In addition, low stratus will also likely result in MVFR/IFR cigs and possibly LIFR between the 09Z-14Z timeframe. With increased mixing/warming by late morning, expect conditions to return to MVFR and eventually VFR closer to midday with cigs lifting to around 3.5Kft and possibly scattering out a bit more. Light and variable winds overnight will trend more SE on Sunday between 5-10 kts with continued low confidence in any convection. Therefore, this will be re-evaluated in the 02/12Z TAF package. /19/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 90 74 91 76 / 20 10 20 10 MLU 88 71 90 73 / 20 0 20 10 DEQ 88 69 87 70 / 10 20 40 20 TXK 89 72 90 72 / 10 10 30 20 ELD 87 70 89 71 / 10 10 20 10 TYR 88 73 89 74 / 30 20 30 20 GGG 89 73 89 73 / 30 20 30 20 LFK 89 74 89 74 / 40 20 20 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...19