351
FXUS64 KSHV 271811
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
111 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 926 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Surface analysis this morning advertises a weak frontal boundary
pushing through the I-20 corridor, likely stalling south of KSHV
over the next hour or so. The advancement of the boundary, and
better thermodynamic parameters across the SW zones, has supported
scattered showers near and around KLFK, moving SE. Little to no
lightning associated with the reflectivity returns, but have
maintained PoPs in the region through the afternoon given diurnal
heating and forcing from the boundary. Aside from this, forecast
continues to be on track with the only adjustment needed was to
correct hourlies to match latest trends as broken skies have
resulted in quicker warming at select sites. Highs in the low to
mid 90`s are still expected this afternoon.

RK

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday)
Issued at 406 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

A weak frontal boundary, currently located near the I-20 corridor
of East Texas and North Louisiana, continues to slowly push
southward across the region. It has ignited a few isolated
showers and thunderstorms across East Texas this morning, where
the atmosphere isn`t capped. Can`t rule out some additional
isolated showers or thunderstorms near the boundary today as it
slowly sinks just south of the region before stalling and
eventually washing out. In wake of the front, we should see some
slightly cooler temps and humidity, with highs in the low to mid
90s. Therefore, no heat products will be needed, as heat index
values should stay below the 105 degree threshold.

Upper level ridging will start to build eastward back into the
region late today into Friday. Drier conditions will return to
the region, although there is a slight chance a few isolated
showers or thunderstorms could form across the extreme southern
sections of our Deep East Texas and adjacent Central Louisiana
zones Friday afternoon near the stalled boundary. We will also
see a return in warmer conditions, with highs climbing back into
the mid to upper 90s. Could even see a few isolated 100 degree
readings. Because of this, we will likely see a return in heat
headlines.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 406 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Drier conditions will continue Saturday, as the center of the
upper ridge will be over the region. Additional heat products
will be likely, as afternoon highs will top out in the mid 90s to
around 100 degrees.

The center of the ridge will slide westward over North Texas on
Sunday and Monday. Long range models are suggesting the ridge will
break down enough across our region, for northwesterly flow aloft
to return. This would bring convection back into the region during
this period, as the flow would bring another frontal boundary into
the area. However, upper ridging is expected to shift back over
the region by the middle portions of next week, bringing a return
of much drier conditions, and more heat headlines. However, there
could be enough weakness on the southern fringe of the ridge for
some slight diurnal rain chances in our Deep East Texas and
adjacent Central Louisiana zones.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

For the ArkLaTex terminals, weak fropa holding over much of the
area and sitting now in the KLFK vicinity. Light NE sfc winds
today will veer to E and SE overnight and return from the S/SW
5-10KT for our Friday as this "toe holding" air mass quickly
erodes. Aloft, we see deep N/NE flow 10-30KT for climb & all FLs.
Summer returns with hot and dry conditions to start the wknd, but
late Sunday, overnight and early Monday should see a return of
some convection w/ a secondary backdoor fropa to start next week.
/24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  96  76  99  80 /  20  10   0   0
MLU  90  72  96  77 /  20  10   0   0
DEQ  92  68  95  75 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  94  71  99  79 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  90  69  96  76 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  95  76  98  79 /  20  10   0   0
GGG  94  74  97  78 /  20  10   0   0
LFK  92  75  96  77 /  40  10  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...24