123
FXUS64 KSHV 021715
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1215 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1011 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Weak upper ridging is currently overhead of the Ark-La-Tex this
morning as dense overcast is holding steady through the region.
Area ASOS/AWOS sites have been reporting between 2-3 deg F lower
than the advertised forecast, and given the influence of the
morning coverage, have elected to lower afternoon maxT`s a few
degrees. The main question for today, once again, is the
convective evolution this afternoon/evening.

Hi-res guidance this morning, and mesoanalysis suggests a
progressive northward moisture surge through the late morning and
afternoon that would support convective initiation along outflow
response, mainly across Louisiana and Texas. Storm location and
coverage confidence is low at this time given the back and forth
presentation in the CAMs. That being said, storm maturity will
remain to be seen, but for now, a Marginal risk is present across
portions of Deep East Texas. This will need to be closely
monitored through the day.

RK

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Quiet Sunday morning going with fair skies north of I-20 and
anvil cirrus over the south from distant central TX thunderstorms.
Air temperatures are coolish in the wake of last evening`s heavy
rainfall with mostly mid to upper 60s and a few sites around 70
degrees. Many sites remain calm with patchy fog in a 1 to 3 mile
restriction at the worst over NE TX, where skies have mostly clear
longest. Radar is likewise quiet, but a few small showers are
sliding east across Toledo Bend this hour. We will likely see a
batch of morning low clouds for several hours.

The short term models all agree we will see a push from the SW
today across east TX and our Parishes south of I-20. The boundary
laid down recently separates higher 70 dew points that will
spread inland with heating. Our KSHV 88D VAD wind profiler is
showing SW flow 20-30KT up to near 8kft, before swinging around
much lighter NE flow. So this sea breeze look will lift inland
late this morning and through this afternoon with showers and
thunderstorms. The SPC has a Marginal Risk up to Tyler and over to
about Alexandria for their day 1 outlook. This will wind down
with the setting sun, but coverage up into NE TX near Texarkana
will make a run for Ruston and Monroe with just a bit more QPF.

Just quick passing rains today and nothing really widespread
heavy. Skies will thin out again this evening with morning lows
looking a little warmer with more lower 70s around. The GFS is
looking at another nocturnal push down the OK/TX Red River valley,
that will edge into our I-30 corridor before daybreak on Monday.
This activity will continue eastward over S AR before falling
apart mid to late morning. The NAM is very similar early, but
with nothing much in the heat of the day, while the GFS and ECMWF
continue with TX/LA afternoon coverage until sunset.

Overall, less organizational push compared to what has been the
case for us lately in the parading MCSs. The WPC has sparse small
change amounts with tenths and quarters of an inch here and there.
There are a few tiny areas with a half to maybe inch in a few
bullseyes, bringing up a Marginal Risk matching up closely with
the SPC outlook. Meanwhile, both today and tomorrow will see
afternoon highs very close to average for early June in the upper
80s. /24/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

As we continue into the new work week things finally appear to see
less rain storms affecting our forecasts and just more June
sunshine with more lower 90s spreading around with plenty of
humidity. And we can expect the morning lows to continue warming
midweek with less nocturnal convective activity and just some
diurnal coverage. The SPC has another Marginal Risk for Monday`s
nocturnal push and then we are general for Tuesday into Wednesday.
Nothing yet in the days 4-8 with low confidence at this time. The
medium range models look at one last weak push perhaps early on
Wednesday for at least our I-30 corridor. Then we wait with just
isolated activity for Thursday to ramp up again on Friday with a
weak frontal passage. A 1017mb high pressure area will push into
the middle MS River Valley and that appears to have a nice dry
weekend in store for us next attempt along with a little less
humidity and highs back to upper 80s in many cases. /24/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Very difficult 18z TAF package as upstream convection is not
a given to move into our airspace this evening into the overnight
hours despite the trend lately of upstream convection holding
together. Starting the package with borderline MVFR/low VFR
ceilings that will eventually become low VFR areawide. While we
will likely see isolated to scattered afternoon convection today
across NE TX into N LA, held off on mentioning VCTS until 00z and
continued that into midnight as the timing of convection is the
biggest discrepancies with the lastest model guidance. Did bring
back MVFR/IFR ceilings late tonight towards sunrise Monday morning
across most terminals without any VCTS but even that is not a
given based on a variety of CAMS which suggest otherwise.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  88  74  91  76 /  20  20  20  10
MLU  88  71  90  73 /  20  10  20  10
DEQ  88  69  87  70 /  10  20  40  20
TXK  89  72  90  72 /  10  10  30  20
ELD  87  70  89  71 /  10  10  20  10
TYR  87  73  89  74 /  30  20  30  20
GGG  87  73  89  73 /  20  20  30  20
LFK  89  74  89  74 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...13