805
FXUS64 KSHV 250318
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1018 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

...New UPDATE, SHORT TERM...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1007 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

We have extended the current SVR watch a couple of hours and added
our remaining deep east TX Counties with the update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday Night)
Issued at 1007 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Thunderstorms continue to move over S Arkansas and we have
extended the SVR Watch 303 for another couple of hours until
midnight. Also, we have added our remaining TX Counties as well
ahead of the big push currently. The KSHV radar is tracking a
large cell along I-20 in east TX and we are continuing see good
progressive motion, so flooding may still become an issue for the
rain trained areas briefly, but all of our rivers in the general
path are normal ahead of this push. More to come this evening and
hoping the HRRR is on track with dissipation around midnight.
/24/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Troughing will remain in place across the central CONUS as we move
into the long-term portion of the forecast period. At the surface,
an area of low pressure will be centered over the mid-central
CONUS with a cold front extending south from central Kansas into
western Texas. A dryline will also be in place from central
Oklahoma into southwest Texas. This will lead to some thunderstorm
development across east Texas that will traverse through the rest
of our area on Sunday. Right now portions of northeast Texas,
southwest Arkansas, and southeast Oklahoma are in a Slight Risk
for strong to severe storms on Sunday. Upper-level trough will
quickly push to the northeast Sunday night into Monday morning
with a decent cold front developing and extending from the Upper
Midwest to north central Texas. This front will eventually push
through the area late Monday night into Tuesday morning, ushering
in some "cooler" and drier air.

Monday should be the last day that we see Heat Index values reach
the 100 degree mark as the rest of the week will be well below
this mark. Monday will see temperatures climb ahead of the front
into the lower to upper 90s. On Tuesday, the "cooler" air will
begin to filter in behind the front and will be most noticeably
felt across our far northern zones with highs in the mid 80s
to lower 90s. Wednesday will be the "coolest" day of the period
with temperatures in the 80s across the region. No major chances
for precipitation to speak of right now in the long term period
however, that is always subject to change.

33

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

For the 25/00Z TAF period, convection will continue to affect our
NW terminals this evening, generally including KTYR/KGGG/KTXK and
possible KELD. This convection will result in reduced cigs/vsbys,
followed by widespread MVFR cigs overnight through late Saturday
morning. These cigs should improve to VFR closer to 25/18Z with a
cu field lifting throughout the afternoon. Additional convection
may develop very late in the period, but it may be delayed until
just after 26/00Z so have opted to forego any mention on Saturday
afternoon for now. Otherwise, S/SE winds will prevail at around
5-10 kts with higher gusts invof of convection.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  93  76  94 /  50  20   0  10
MLU  72  93  73  94 /  30  20   0  10
DEQ  66  87  70  90 /  60  10  10  10
TXK  70  91  74  92 /  60  20   0  10
ELD  68  90  71  92 /  50  30   0  10
TYR  72  92  75  93 / 100   0   0   0
GGG  72  92  74  92 /  90  10   0  10
LFK  74  94  74  94 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....33
AVIATION...19