Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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020 FXUS64 KSHV 231804 AAA AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Shreveport LA 104 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1049 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 No major updates are required to the forecast grids for the remainder of today. As of the 16Z hour, the ArkLaTex is experiencing a respite between rounds of convection, as our early morning storms advance into southern and central Arkansas, while new convection begins to fire up in Texas south of Waco. Expanded PoPs further south and west to account for potential impacts from said Texas storms, and nudged today`s afternoon highs by 1-2 degrees, given more stubborn cloud cover looking to hang on, as broken skies are overtaken by fresh OVC decks from the southwest. /26/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 104 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 MVFR cigs have recently begun to lift early this afternoon across much of E TX/N LA, although these cigs will persist through at least mid afternoon across SW AR, near a residual mesoscale bndry leftover from the early morning convection extending from extreme SE OK into Srn AR. VFR conditions will prevail elsewhere this afternoon and evening, with a extensive cu field accompanied by elevated cigs from blowoff with the convection ongoing across Cntrl TX. The sfc bndry is expected to slowly begin to return back N and eventually wash out across SW AR this afternoon, but could provide focus of isolated to scattered convection this afternoon across SW AR, mainly N of the TXK/ELD terminals. Will have to await the arrival of a shortwave trough over W TX, which will traverse E across the state this afternoon and should enhance scattered convection development across Cntrl TX, which should gradually spread E into E TX by mid and late afternoon. Have delayed mention of VCTS for the area terminals (except for TYR/GGG), with the potentially more organized convection waiting until early to mid evening before affecting the SW AR/N LA terminals. Still unsure as to the extent of convection, but the gradual expectation is for the convection to diminish from W to E later this evening/overnight. The convection should also delay the onset of MVFR cig development, but should set in at LFK shortly after 06Z, and the remaining terminals after 09Z. Gradual improvement is expected through mid-morning, before cigs begin to lift and eventually return to VFR by the end of the 18Z TAF period. SSE winds 6-10kts will continue this afternoon and tonight. /15/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 91 74 93 74 / 40 40 10 20 MLU 90 70 93 72 / 40 40 0 20 DEQ 84 67 90 68 / 50 70 20 40 TXK 88 71 91 71 / 40 60 20 40 ELD 87 68 91 69 / 40 60 10 30 TYR 88 72 92 73 / 40 50 20 30 GGG 89 71 92 72 / 40 40 10 30 LFK 92 74 94 74 / 40 40 0 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...26 AVIATION...15